The cinnamon market in 2025 is marked by intensifying global demand, shifting trade dynamics, and resilient pricing despite slowing import volumes. Vietnam, one of the world's largest cinnamon producers alongside Indonesia and China, reported a notable reduction in cinnamon imports this April, totaling 416 tons (down 23.1% from March) and $1 million USD in turnover. These declines reflect changing sourcing strategies and robust domestic production, while Indonesia's continued dominance as Vietnam's supplier supports stable Cassia cinnamon flows. Meanwhile, the global industry is buoyed by a strong annual demand increase (8–12%), led by rising usage in the food, pharmaceutical, and cosmetic sectors. Free trade agreements like RCEP and evolving sourcing standards are reshaping market access, particularly as Indonesia leverages digital agriculture and regulatory compliance to target new markets in Africa and Latin America.

For Vietnamese exporters, opportunities abound: earlier this year, the country shipped nearly 100,000 tons, valued at $274.5 million USD, with India as the top destination. While farm-gate and export price levels remain steady, supply-side factors—including weather risks in major growing regions and sustainability imperatives—remain in sharp focus for 2025. This report provides a data-driven analysis of recent price trends, market drivers, trade flows, and the prospects that will shape the cinnamon market in the months ahead.

📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Vietnam imported 1,638 tons of cinnamon in the first four months of 2025 (–18.5% y/y in both volume and value), indicating cautious sourcing and strong local output.
• Indonesia remains the leading supplier to Vietnam, holding a 70% market share, followed by China (17%). Indonesia’s exports totaled 1,144 tons to Vietnam in the period.
• Vietnamese cinnamon exports (Jan–Apr 2025): 99,874 tons, +11.7% y/y; export value: $274.5M, +5.2% y/y. India is the #1 market for Vietnamese cinnamon (35.9% share).
• Demand projected to rise 8–12% annually, fueled by global F&B, pharmaceutical, and cosmetic applications.
• RCEP and other trade deals improve market access for both Indonesia and Vietnam, especially in emerging African and Latin American regions.

📊 Fundamentals

• Global Production Leaders: Indonesia, Vietnam, and China dominate production and export, with Indonesia leading in Cassia cinnamon (cultivating hundreds of thousands of hectares).
• Product Mix: Cassia (Indonesian/Vietnamese) is favored for industrial uses due to strong flavor and lower cost; Ceylon (Sri Lankan/Indian) remains premium for specialty markets.
• Industry Shifts: Indonesian government investing in sustainable, tech-driven supply chains; Vietnam leverages FTAs for expanded reach.
• Speculative Positioning: Low volatility recently, with steady demand balancing slower imports.

⛅ Weather Outlook & Impact

• Indonesia: Cinnamon-growing regions like Sumatra and Java have experienced above-average rainfall this season, supporting good soil moisture but increasing disease risk. Forecasts signal continued scattered rain, which may boost near-term yields but raises concerns for disease pressure and harvest logistics.
• Vietnam: Northern and central regions remain under normal temperature and precipitation regimes, favoring healthy crop development through early June.
• Outlook: Barring unexpected storms or extended wet spells, 2025 yields are projected as stable to moderately higher for both countries.

🌐 Global Stocks & Trade Flows

📆 Trading Outlook & Guidance

• Buyers: Secure mid-term coverage, as Q2–Q3 spot prices are steady but could firm on adverse weather or supply chain delays.
• Sellers: Use current stability to negotiate contracts, targeting export destinations with new FTA access. Consider gradual release to capitalize on stable-to-firm sentiment.
• Shippers: Monitor logistics closely—rain disruptions could tighten short-term availability in Indonesia.
• Watch: Regulatory changes (EU/US standards), RCEP market shifts, and signs of crop disease in main origins.

⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Price outlook remains supported by healthy demand, stable crops, and strong trade ties—with only slight anticipated price firming near term.