The global Soya market is entering the 2024/25 season with ample supply and rising inventories, leading to a fundamentally bearish tone for prices in the near term. Latest estimates from Oil World indicate that global ending stocks will rise to 121.63 million tons, up sharply from last year's 109.67 million tons. Major producers such as Brazil, Argentina, and the United States are all set to boost their inventories, reflecting both strong harvests and slightly weaker crush demand. Specifically, Brazilian stocks are projected at 47.5 million tons (up from 38.46 million), Argentina’s at 34.26 million (vs 31.48 million), and the US at 10.6 million (vs 9.32 million).

While this ample supply provides relief for importers and food processors, it suppresses farmers ' sales and weighs on market sentiment across key global exchanges. Moreover, while crop progress is mostly favourable, weather patterns remain a key focus for traders, especially in the US Midwest and Brazil, where La Niña conditions could disrupt planting or maturation in the months ahead. Consumption trends, speculative positioning, and international trade flows will therefore dictate short-term price volatility.

📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Global ending stocks for 2024/25 are forecasted at 121.63 million tons, up from 109.67 million.— Brazil: 47.5M (prev. 38.46M); Argentina: 34.26M (31.48M); US: 10.6M (9.32M).
• Crush demand reportedly slightly weaker than anticipated; exports from Brazil remain robust, but Chinese demand is variable.
• Production: All major origins harvested strong crops, creating a surplus. Minor concerns exist for North American plantings if adverse weather emerges during summer.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA & Oil World reports: Both confirm a significant replenishment of global stocks and highlight subdued crush margins due to subdued demand for soy meal and oil.
• Global inventories: Importers are holding back purchases in anticipation of possible further price declines as the crop year unfolds.
• Speculative positioning: Managed money has adopted a bearish bias, with large short exposure evident in US futures markets.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• US Midwest: Favourable planting weather continues, but short-term forecasts suggest pockets of excessive rainfall that could disrupt emergence in some areas. Traders are monitoring La Niña indicators that could impact yields later in the season.
• Brazil & Argentina: Currently enjoying normal-to-wet conditions; late-planted crop risk will increase if Southern Brazil turns dry by July-August, per meteorological models.

🌐 Production & Stock Comparison

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Soy prices are under downward pressure given abundant supplies and rising ending stocks.
• Watch for US weather volatility and potential export surprises from Brazil as risk triggers.
• Buyers should monitor for post-harvest pricing opportunities; longer-term positions could benefit from any supply disruptions in South America.
• Farmers are encouraged to hedge portions of new-crop production due to bearish seasonal bias.
• Soy processors should lock in forward coverage to exploit currently favourable pricing.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (FOB)