The garlic market in India stands at a pivotal moment. Current prices in Saurashtra and major markets like Rajkot and Madhya Pradesh remain stable, with little fluctuation over the past week. Despite this steadiness, volumes arriving at key markets are markedly lower than in recent seasons. Farmers, wary of underwhelming prices, are opting to hold back the majority of their harvested crop, releasing less than 10% to the open market. This strategy is producing a sense of artificial scarcity while anticipation builds for potential price rallies following festival periods such as Shatam-Aatham and Diwali. On the supply side, regional arrivals—particularly in Gujarat and Rajasthan—are holding steady for now, with a slight upward nudge in prices observed in Madhya Pradesh. Meanwhile, the emergence of new crops from Himachal Pradesh and heightened output from China are already starting to influence both domestic and international garlic trade attitudes. Notably, Chinese garlic remains non-competitive price-wise compared to high-quality Indian lots, despite a 15% increase in China’s crop size this season, raising questions about potential future import flows. Given these entwined dynamics—farmer selling reluctance, regional supply diversity, and global competition—the coming weeks may set the tone for the season’s pricing power, especially if monsoon rains spur additional stock releases.

📈 Prices

*On 20kg lot basis: Rajkot quotes converted to per kg for comparison.

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Low arrivals in Saurashtra: Less than 10% of harvest released; large stocks held back for festival sales or later in season.
• Daily arrivals: MP: 70,000–75,000 sacks; Rajasthan: 35,000–40,000 sacks, indicating a normal-to-subdued pace.
• Quality spread: Lowest grade at USD 0.34–0.38/kg; best domestic at up to USD 1.32/kg; new Himachal crop at USD 1.08–1.32/kg.
• Chinese imports: Remain uncompetitive; up 15% in crop size, but Indian prices and logistics currently discourage import demand.
• Farmer stock holding: If monsoon lifts prices, expect increased market releases, affecting short-term supply pressure.

📊 Fundamentals

• Farmer Behavior: Reluctance to sell at low prices—potential for pent-up supply after festivals or big price jumps.
• Regional Variations: Himachal is adding moderate supply; Gujarat and MP hold majority of stocks for seasonality play.
• Export/Import Dynamics: Egyptian and Chinese garlic are available but not price-competitive against top Indian grades; domestic prices for powder form are softening due to low demand.
• Global Stock Situation: China’s 15% crop increase could cap later price rallies, especially if export demand weakens.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• Gujarat & Rajasthan: Monsoon forecasts indicate normal to slightly above-normal rainfall for coming weeks—beneficial for stored garlic condition and potential for a quality uptrend if released.
• Central India (MP): Stable temperature and humidity; no immediate adverse impact for in-storage crop quality expected.
• Himachal Pradesh: Good crop conditions confirmed; further local arrivals likely to moderate premium prices on fresh lots.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 🚩 Short-term: Prices likely steady; minimal risk of sharp downside due to slow arrivals and cautious selling.
• 📦 Watch stored stock releases: If monsoon lifts market mood, expect sudden increase in volumes and mild softening in prices.
• 🌐 Importers: Hold off major purchases while local prices remain competitive; monitor China’s export moves.
• 🛒 Exporters: Indian premium and Himachal garlic can target niche buyers, but price gaps with Chinese/ Egyptian must justify logistics.
• 📊 Speculators/Buyers: Favor gradual, need-based buying; avoid over-leveraging against potential Diwali stock releases.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Prepared for market participants as of June 2025. Data references: field market surveys, commodity exchange leaders, and global production estimates.