The global corn market finds itself at a pivotal juncture this week, marked by a shifting European demand landscape and intensifying competition from South America. Demand for Ukrainian old-crop corn is clearly weakening as European buyers balk at its relatively high price compared to competitive South American origins. Market participants are keenly awaiting the second Brazilian corn crop (safrinha), due for delivery from late June, expected to further pressure prices as cheaper supply expands global availability. On the domestic Ukrainian market, both old and new crop prices are showing a declining trend amid subdued trading activity, pointing to sluggish demand and uncertainty lingering over the coming months.

Latest buyer indications reinforce the bearish sentiment: 2024-crop offers for Odessa are $226-228/ton, with forward values for 2025 dipping to $196-198/ton, signaling little hope for a near-term price rebound. Across Europe, Western European import indications also show pressure, with DAP Northwest Germany and Netherlands at €220-225/ton and €210-212/ton, respectively for 2024, with further softness for 2025 crop deliveries. The scene is set for a cautious trading outlook as additional South American bushels press into the global market. This is compounded by weak speculative participation and ample global stocks in key import markets. Key weather risks for the US and Black Sea are being watched, but thus far, they offer only brief rallies amid overall supply-side dominance. This could provide hedging opportunities for sellers ahead of the new marketing year.

📈 Price Overview

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• 🟡 Ukraine: Old-crop demand from Europe recedes amid uncompetitive prices. New-crop (2024) price offers undercut by South American competition; domestic demand and activity slow.
• 🟡 Brazil: The second safrinha harvest is set to arrive on the world market, with cheaper offers expected to dominate late June–July deliveries. This remains the single largest supply-side driver in the near term.
• 🟡 Europe: Buyers reduce spot and forward interest in Ukrainian corn due to more attractive South American pricing and stable projected regional inventories.
• 🟡 Speculative Activity: Investment funds largely absent, contributing to low volatility and a muted risk premium.

📊 Fundamentals & Stocks

• 🌽 Global Production: Top exporters (US, Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine) expected to maintain robust volumes in 2024/25 with Brazil's large safrinha crop pivotal for summer supply.
• 🏦 Stocks: USDA June WASDE report projects a slight global stock increase, though with comfortable buffer in key importing regions.
• 💼 Old Crop Transition: Market focus firmly on new crop, with old supplies trading at discounts and trading activity subdued.

🌦️ Weather Outlook: Main Growing Regions

• Brazil: Mild, mostly dry harvest conditions continue across the safrinha belt. No major weather threats reported. Smooth harvest progress expected to add export pressure late June onward.
• US Midwest: Warm temperatures accelerate planting and early development. Near-term outlook projects moderate rain, beneficial for crop establishment, though watch for localized dryness in the West Corn Belt.
• Ukraine: Rainfall has been adequate, supporting good early crop conditions for both old and new corn. No significant weather risks reported through late June.

🌎 Global Production & Stock Comparison

👀 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 🔻 Producers: Consider forward selling remaining old crop inventory ahead of larger Brazilian arrivals; incremental sales recommended into new crop rallies.
• 🔻 Exporters: Actively monitor South American FOB/DEL premiums to remain competitive in European and Northern African destination markets.
• 🔻 Importers: Take advantage of bearish forward structure; defer coverage where possible and await more competitive Brazilian and Ukrainian new crop offers.
• 🔻 Speculators: Weak market structure with muted volatility; await confirmation of US/Black Sea weather risks before adding length.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast