📊 Bulgaria Grain Market Update – June 2025USDA Reports Favourable Outlook for Winter Crops – Corn Remains Weather-DependentSource: USDA GAIN Report BU2025-0008, FAS Sofia

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🔹 Overview: Main Crop Developments

Wheat & Barley (Winter Grains)

• Forecast for MY 2025/26 (FAS Sofia):
  • Wheat: 7.0 MMT (similar to the previous year)
  • Barley: 1.0 MMT
  • Planted area: Wheat +2.9%, Barley +8.7%
• Weather conditions have supported strong biomass accumulation and NDVI indicators above the 5-year average.
• Farmers expanded winter crop acreage due to lower risk compared to spring crops.
• According to the European Commission (JRC/MARS), projected yields are:
  • Wheat: 5.88 MT/HA (+12% over 5-year avg.)
  • Barley: 5.41 MT/HA (+7%)

Corn

• Planted area sharply down: -19.6% (approx. 374,000 ha), due to past drought experiences.
• Yield recovery possible: 4.4–5.0 MT/HA (after 3.25 MT/HA in 2024)
• Projected production: 1.8–2.1 MMT (vs. 1.6 MMT last year)

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🔹 Domestic Use Trends (MY 2024/25)

• Wheat:
  • +17% feed use (replacing corn), +38% ethanol use, +12% food consumption
• Barley:
  • +30% for seed, +23% growth in the brewing industry due to higher beer demand and expanding malt capacity
• Corn:
  • Initially weak use due to poor crop, but +43% increase in industrial use (starch) and +2.3% in feed (especially poultry) due to rising imports

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🔹 Trade Performance (as of late May 2025)

Top export destinations:

• Wheat: Algeria, Egypt, Spain, Thailand, Greece
• Barley: Saudi Arabia, Spain, Portugal, Morocco
• Corn: Greece, Turkey, Romania

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🔹 Price Trends

• Wheat: +6% YoY in May 2025 – driven by export demand (see Graphs 1–2, p. 4)
• Barley: +8% YoY – increased feed and brewery demand
• Corn: +9% YoY – strong price premiums for high-quality corn (see Graphs 3–4, p. 6)

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🔹 Agricultural Policy Developments

• Irrigation investment and reform:
  • Parliament passed the Water Act amendment to subsidise water delivery for irrigation.
  • National efforts underway to upgrade outdated irrigation infrastructure (target: >250,000 ha irrigated area).
• Hail protection is still insufficient; insurance coverage remains limited.
• CAP reform concerns: National Grain Association pushes back against EC proposals to consolidate CAP funding with other programs

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📌 Conclusion & Outlook

• Winter grains are progressing well and could see strong yields if favourable weather continues.
• Corn outlook is more uncertain but could recover depending on mid-summer conditions.
• Exports of wheat and barley remain robust; corn imports are essential to meet domestic needs.
• Prices are trending higher amid strong demand, but corn quality remains a challenge.

The overall outlook is cautiously optimistic, with winter crops leading Bulgaria’s grain recovery. This report is based on data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS Sofia) as published in GAIN Report BU2025-0008.

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