Oat markets are showing signs of renewed firmness, as futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) edge higher and physical oat prices in key origins continue an upward trend. This momentum is fueled by supply limitations and shifting weather scenarios across key producing countries. As of early June 2025, front-month CBOT oat contracts have rebounded after a mild pullback, with the July 2025 contract up 0.74% to 372.75 US-Cent/bushel, while physical offers for Ukrainian feed oats were adjusted higher to 0.23 USD/kg FCA Odesa. This rally emerges in the context of tight global oat inventories, ongoing logistical challenges, and active speculative positioning. Meanwhile, concerns are increasing over dry weather in Canada and the Northern Plains, threatening to reduce yield potential as the crop moves into key development stages. At the same time, steady demand from the feed and food sectors underpins market stability but leaves little buffer should the supply outlook deteriorate further. International buyers are responding to the volatile backdrop with cautious but active buying, amid an overall bullish undertone in the market. In this report, we deliver a comprehensive analysis of oat price trends, fundamental market drivers, global stock comparisons, key weather risks, and a tactical trading outlook for market participants.

📈 Prices: Latest Oat Market Quotations

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• USDA Reports: Latest Grain Stocks suggest continued low oat inventories in North America, with projected US ending stocks for 2024/25 at multi-year lows.
• Production Outlook: Canada—the world's largest oat exporter—faces yield concerns due to drier-than-average early summer weather, while Scandinavian output is forecast to be stable but with limited export surplus.
• Demand Trends: Steady feed and food processing demand persists in Europe and Asia, with new tenders emerging from the Middle East.
• Speculative Positioning: Net longs in oats futures have increased, reflecting improved market sentiment and hedging in anticipation of weather risks.
• Logistics: Black Sea origins (notably Ukraine) continue to offer competitively priced oats, but export flows are intermittently disrupted by port and security issues.

📊 Fundamentals & Global Stocks

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Impact Analysis

• Canada/Northern US: Latest outlooks indicate above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation for the next 2 weeks, raising concerns over soil moisture and oat yield potential, especially in Manitoba and North Dakota.
• EU (Nordics/Baltics): Favourable moisture but cooler temperatures may slow early crop progress; larger risk if cool anomaly persists late into June.
• Ukraine/Russia: Mostly dry and warm, aiding harvest but limiting later-sown oats’ development. No major yield-reducing events are anticipated in the short term.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison

• Global oat production forecast: ~17.5 mln t for 2024/25 (slight decline vs previous year).
• OECD stocks remain tense; international buyers are watching North American weather closely.
• Ukraine’s exportable oats gain traction amid competitive pricing, lifting local offer values.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Bullish bias: Tight inventories, raised speculative activity, and increasing weather risks point to further upside, particularly in front-month contracts.
• Recommended actions:
  • Producers in North America should consider advanced sales for a portion of the new crop amid price strength.
  • End-users advised to secure Q3-Q4 2025 coverage to hedge against further volatility.
  • Importers watch Ukrainian offers, but manage logistics risks closely.
• Downside risk: Potential for price setbacks if weather improves in Canada/Northern Plains or if unexpected exports rise from Russia or the EU.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market participants are advised to monitor crop and weather updates daily as supply risks remain elevated.

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  • Soil moisture
  • Moisture anomaly
  • Drought intensity
  • Air quality (PM2.5, CO, ozone, etc.)
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  • and much more

🕓 Forecast Timeline:Check the bottom bar to scroll through weather and soil forecasts for the next several days.