Sugar Market Rebounds on Technical Buying – August Contract Leads the Way
On 11 June 2025, ICE Sugar No.5 futures
reversed Tuesday’s losses, with the
August 2025 contract climbing 1.06% to USD 472.80/t (EUR 439.70/t). Strong volume in the front month (12.698 Kontrakte) and mild short-covering helped lift the market. However, fundamentals remain weak, and EU spot prices are trending sideways.
📊 ICE Sugar No.5 – Closing Summary (11.06.2025)
(Umrechnungskurs: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)
🇪🇺 EU Market Snapshot – Spot Prices Hold Near Lows
📉 FCA spot prices in the EU remain soft at
EUR 0.51–0.53/kg, with no significant forward demand visible.📦 Traders report stagnant interest from the food industry and note that
sweetener imports continue to displace raw sugar demand.🦠 Disease-related concerns (Stolbur) in southern Germany have
not yet influenced regional wholesale pricing.
🛍️ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, verified 11.06.2025)
📊 Price Comparison Table
🌍 Market Factors
- 🌾 Weather remains neutral globally – no drought signals
- 🚢 Brazilian shipping continues to exceed 2023 levels
- 💱 Strong USD limits demand from emerging-market buyers
- 📦 EU factories struggle with margin compression and excess inventory
🔮 3-Day Forecast (12–14 June 2025)
📌
Outlook:Recovery is fragile – unless demand returns, gains may be temporary.
🧭 Conclusion & Strategy
✅ Technical bounce in the August contract reflects position adjustment📦 EU spot remains muted – no structural improvement seen🧊 German disease pressure (Stolbur) not yet priced in, but monitored
📌 Recommendations:
- 🛒 Buyers: Spot FCA offers below EUR 0.53/kg are still standard – use dip
- 📦 Sellers: Use bounce to secure Q3 pricing, don’t overestimate upside
- 📊 Traders: Momentum could push toward USD 478/t, but macro drivers are lacking
📍
Summary:Small recovery on the board – but
no change in fundamentals. EU demand is absent, supply is secure, and only weather or disruption could break the range.
