The wheat market continues to navigate a phase of stabilization, trading near cycle lows despite pockets of support from recent fundamental data. On Euronext, wheat futures showed only marginal upward movement, with the front-month September contract closing at EUR 199.50/t (+0.50 EUR). Across the Atlantic, CBOT Soft Red Winter wheat also saw modest gains, with the July contract up by 1.25 cents to 535.5 ct/bu. Current price action reflects the broadly positive crop conditions in North America and Europe, which are now largely factored into market pricing. Despite this, selling pressure from growers remains limited at current price levels, and speculative funds—while still holding substantial net short positions—appear reluctant to add further, contributing to recent price stabilization.

Traders are closely eyeing key market reports, including the soon-to-be-released USDA WASDE and export sales data, both likely to set near-term direction. Analyst consensus is building around higher US wheat output and stocks for 2024/25, but global stocks are projected to decline modestly, reinforcing the theme of regional surplus versus global tightness. Meanwhile, weather concerns add complexity: heavy rainfall in Argentina has trimmed planted area expectations, with Rosario Exchange cutting its 2025/26 production forecast by 300,000 t to 20.7 million t. Market participants are also digesting estimates for new-crop export sales—potentially a bellwether for post-harvest demand strength.

📈 Prices: Key Futures Market Overview

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• USDA WASDE Report (due today): Expected to show US wheat production up by 3 million bu to 1.924 billion bu. Stocks for 2024/25 forecast up to 845 million bu, 2025/26 stocks may rise to 925 million bu.
• Global Ending Stocks: Analysts see a year-on-year dip in global ending stocks to 264.9 million t, with 2025/26 estimates slightly lower at 265 million t.
• Argentina: Rosario Exchange lowers 2025/26 output forecast by 0.3 million t due to weather, expecting 20.7 million t.
• Fundamental Positioning: Commodity funds maintain substantial short positions but show little appetite to increase them further.
• Export Sales: For 2024/25, traders expect net US wheat sales from -100,000 t to +500,000 t, with new-crop business in the 400,000–600,000 t range.

📊 Fundamentals Comparison

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• North America: Wheat crops remain in good-to-excellent condition, limiting short-term supply threats.
• Europe: Similarly, European wheat stands are robust, but rain delays in some areas (notably France, Germany) could impact quality if wet weather persists.
• Argentina: Persistent wetness blocks field access post-heavy rains, reducing planted area and output forecasts.
• Near-Term Forecast (US Midwest): Cooler, more stable weather will support ongoing crop development. Some rainfall over the next three days may benefit late-maturing wheat but increase lodging risk if excessive.

🌍 Global Production & Trade Flow Comparison

• Major Exporters: US, EU (France), Russia, Australia. US and Russia expected to see slightly increased production, Argentina trimming outlook.
• Major Importers: Egypt, Middle East, SE Asia—watching for new-crop availability and pricing, especially given supply downtime in Argentina and uncertain export policies from Russia.

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term: Market remains in balance at the lows; large fund shorts signal potential for position covering on any bullish surprise from WASDE or weather events.
• Hedge/Procurement: Buyers should monitor basis opportunities—forward contracting advisable given downside risk is now more limited and market could turn on supply news.
• Growers: Limited selling interest for now is justified unless key support levels break; consider scale-up sales on any rally above recent resistance.
• Speculators: Maintain watch on US export pace and fund positioning; upside risk present if weather or USDA data surprises.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast