The European rapeseed market is navigating a period of transition: after five consecutive sessions of gains, Euronext prices have turned weaker for a second straight day. The benchmark August 2025 contract dropped €3.75 to €483.25/t, reflecting profit-taking and spillover weakness from softer soybeans and soymeal on CBOT, even as soy oil gained. The macro picture is nuanced—while US-China trade tensions have eased somewhat, the lack of direct support for agricultural commodities has disappointed traders, keeping oilseed markets volatile. Meanwhile, dry weather is causing mounting concerns for Canadian canola crop yields, providing some underlying support for rapeseed values.

On the physical market, EU and Ukrainian FOB/FCA rapeseed prices have stabilised after earlier declines, with global end-users closely watching crop weather in major origins. Short-term demand remains firm but is being outpaced by cautious forward buying due to harvest uncertainty and anticipation around key USDA reports due later this week. Weather will be pivotal moving forward, with much of western Canada awaiting desperately needed rainfall in the coming week; the outlook will shape both supply expectations and price action across global oilseed markets.

📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• EU: Rapeseed harvest is projected to be steady, but spring and early summer weather will be decisive. Short-term supply is adequate, but forward coverage is limited.
• Canada: Canola crop prospects deteriorate on dry western prairies; rain is forecast but may not be enough to reverse plant stress. Speedy seeding provides some optimism, but much depends on June rainfalls.
• Ukraine: Exports remain brisk, but field conditions in some regions are below potential, possibly capping upside yields.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• WASDE/USDA reports expected to show stable global oilseed stocks, with minor increases for 2025/26 US soybean and South American production.
• Canadian canola may see temporary support on crop concerns, though rising Malaysian palm oil inventories and weak exports could limit the upside.
• Speculative activity remains high, positioning ahead of USDA data release and key weather developments—the market remains headline-driven.

🌦 Weather Outlook

• Western Canada: Dryness persists, with soil moisture deficits likely limiting canola yield potential unless significant rain falls in the next 7 days. Forecasts point to some precipitation, but coverage and intensity remain uncertain.
• Europe: Mostly favourable growing conditions in France and Germany; localised dryness in eastern Europe and Ukraine, but not critical yet. The weather is turning more variable, with rain needed to sustain yield potential in the southeast EU.
• Black Sea: Ukraine and southern Russia report mixed field conditions, some stress, but within normal seasonal ranges so far.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Positions (2024/25, Major Exporters)

*EU Commission estimate | †Own estimate based on available trade and crop commentary (June 2025)

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term downside is limited as weather in Canada remains a key risk; monitor forecasts and rain outcomes closely.
• If precipitation disappoints in prairies, look for risk premiums in both ICE canola and Euronext rapeseed over the coming week.
• End-users: Consider layering in coverage on dips below €480/t Aug 25 Euronext; physical offers from Ukraine present value for nearby delivery.
• Producers: Use rebounds towards €490-495/t to hedge new crop, monitor basis levels in local cash markets.
• Speculators: Watch for elevated volatility around the USDA WASDE release and adjust stops accordingly.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast