The global corn market faces renewed pressure as robust weather conditions in the US Midwest and Brazil signal a strong outlook for the 2024/25 corn crop. Over the past week, corn futures experienced moderate declines across leading exchanges, with the CBOT July contract slipping by 1.75 cents to 437 cents/bushel, and Euronext's August contract falling by 1 EUR to 187.75 EUR/ton. The Commodity Weather Group has indicated continued favourable weather in the US Midwest—15–20% of the region experiencing only isolated dryness and no heat stress—supporting the downward trend in prices. Meanwhile, Brazilian crop prospects climb with estimates reaching 131.8 million tons, up 1.8 million from the prior month, while Argentina's supply remains stable.

Ethanol demand has remained robust in the United States, with a record production pace of 1.12 million barrels per day and rising refinery corn input volumes, even as ethanol stocks declined sharply to 23.73 million barrels. These fundamental strengths, however, are offset by trader caution ahead of the latest USDA WASDE and export reports, with expectations of reductions in both old and new US corn ending stocks. On the demand side, global export booking appears soft but stable, with analysts predicting new crop sales between 0.7–1.2 million tons. In this context, cautious optimism mingles with bearish undertones as traders weigh healthy supply prospects against supportive ethanol and export trends.

📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• US weather: Strong crop outlook with minimal drought and no heat threats benefiting corn pollination expectations.
• Brazil: 2024/25 production is set to rise, now estimated at 131.8 million tons (+1.8 Mt m/m).
• Argentina: Steady production remains at 49.9 million tons.
• US Ending Stocks: Analyst consensus sees old crop ending stocks at 1.392 billion bu (-23M vs. May), and new crop at 1.789 billion bu (-11M vs. May).
• Export Bookings: For the week ending June 5, 2024/25, export sales are expected at 0.7–1.2 Mt; new crop sales are subdued.

📊 Fundamentals

• Ethanol: US ethanol production hits a fresh record, supporting domestic demand. Inventories fell to 23.734 million barrels (down 706,000 bbls).
• Speculative Positioning: Traders are cautiously positioned ahead of the USDA's June WASDE and weekly export data releases.
• Global Supply: World stocks remain comfortable due to increased output in Brazil and stable output elsewhere.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• US Midwest: Over the next 3–5 days, continued moderate rainfall and below-normal temperatures; no extreme events.
• Brazil: Dry but mild conditions support late corn harvest and logistics.
• Argentina: Concerns about potential cold spells, but insufficient to alter harvest prospects.
• Impacts: Crop conditions are expected to remain stable or improve in all major producing countries, reducing weather risk premia.

🌎 Production & Stock Comparison

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Bullish triggers are limited; current weather and supply trends reinforce a neutral to bearish stance.
• Watch for any surprises in the WASDE/USDA reports, particularly regarding US and global stock revisions.
• Ethanol demand remains supportive but has already been largely priced in.
• Export booking pace is key for near-term direction. Insufficient export sales could deepen price pressure, but support could emerge if bookings accelerate after current lows.
• Consider defensive hedging for physical sellers in the US and EU.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast