The global hazelnut market is experiencing heightened volatility as 2025 unfolds, primarily shaped by the aftermath of April frosts in Turkey's Black Sea region and sharp disputes among major forecasting bodies. With Turkey dominating global hazelnut production and exports—often applying strong leverage on pricing—recent weather-driven shocks and diverging yield estimates have thrown the market into flux. The Turkish Statistical Institute’s (TÜİK) latest crop estimate for 2025/26, at 520,000 tons, stands in stark contrast to the Black Sea Exporters' Association (KiB) forecast of 609,400 tons, and is 22% lower than KiB's prior 2024/25 projection. This difference is more than a statistical quirk; it underpins tensions about data transparency and has injected further uncertainty into market sentiment.

Prices have responded decisively. Since early April, Levant-quality Turkish hazelnut benchmark prices have surged by $235/100kg, now reaching $1,100/100kg on escalating supply concerns. Subzero temperatures, including drops as low as -3.9°C in the Ordu region, damaged key orchards, and fears of below-average May temperatures persist. This price surge flows through the international value chain: both Turkish and Georgian-origin hazelnut kernels now command notable premiums across European and global wholesale markets. In this dynamic context, supply chain actors—from processors to industrial food buyers—face challenging decisions, balancing coverage strategies with the risk of further tightening in global supply.

📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Turkey’s Dominance: Despite frosts, Turkey remains the world’s top exporter (over 60% global share).
• 2025/26 Output Disputed: TÜİK projects 520,000 tons (down from previous years), while KiB expects 609,400 tons. This division highlights deep uncertainties in supply estimates.
• Global Buyers are increasing coverage as concerns mount about further production downgrades.
• Inventory Drawdown: Global stocks are expected to tighten if Turkish output lands at TÜİK’s lower estimate.
• Speculation/Risk: Traders and processors are increasing their exposure in the futures/options market as price volatility rises.

📊 Fundamentals

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• April Frost: Subzero periods (-3.9°C) in key Turkish growing areas (Ordu, Fatsa, Giresun, Trabzon, Samsun) damaged early blossoms and nuts; true yield impact likely to appear in post-harvest surveys.
• May Cold Streak: Below-average temperatures persisted into May, raising risks of further loss of fruit set and quality.
• Short-term Outlook: June appears to be trending slightly warmer and drier across the Black Sea, but earlier stress may limit the capacity for orchard recovery, particularly outside irrigated regions.
• European Producers: Italy and Georgia report mostly favourable weather; no severe hits to output expected.

🔍 Market Drivers

• Frost/Weather Shocks: Principal driver of recent Turkish price surge; threatens global supply.
• Production Estimate Disputes: The Market is torn between TÜİK and KiB numbers, sustaining price risk premium.
• Speculative Activity: Increased trading volumes and net long positioning among exporters and processors.
• Strong Consumption: Chocolate and confectionery industries maintain robust demand in Europe and Asia-Pacific.
• Weak Lira: Still encourages Turkish exports, though price volatility is amplified by currency swings.

📆 Trading Outlook

• Processors and industrial buyers should secure forward contracts to lock in supply amid uncertainty.
• Watch for further production updates from TÜİK and KiB in July and August—critical months for global supply signals.
• Short-term price momentum favours the upside, particularly if additional weather issues emerge.
• Speculators may find volatility attractive, but position management is key as market sentiment could shift on new crop data.
• Monitor Lira and Euro exchange rates for additional price risks on export contracts.

🔮 3-Day Hazelnut Price Forecast

Overall, the global hazelnut market enters the 2025/26 cycle with supply uncertainty, pricing volatility, and critical weather risks remaining in focus. All participants are advised to remain vigilant for major supply updates and further weather developments as pricing likely continues to reflect risk premiums in the short-to-medium term.