The global peanut market is currently experiencing robust momentum, buoyed by favorable weather, the seasonal arrival of new crops, and firm demand from both the commercial and seed sectors. As summer sets in, fresh arrivals have kicked off in Gujarat’s Saurashtra region—in particular, in Mahuva, Talaja, and Bhavnagar. Yet, a contrasting narrative unfolds in Banaskantha and Sabarkantha, where production trails last year’s volumes. The peanut sector’s pulse is further quickened by active government market intervention via NAFED, which continues to supply peanuts at competitive support prices and sees solid uptake due to strong seed interest.

Notably, prices for peanuts sent to Maharashtra climbed from $0.96 to $1.02 per kg, and the premium G-20 variety has posted an impressive rally—recently quoted at $290.40–$291.60 per quintal, with expectations rising above $300 per quintal in the near future. The monsoon’s early arrival bodes well for groundnut planting, sparking optimism for continued firm prices, although a delayed monsoon could drive a shift toward soybean and groundnut at the expense of lentil acreage. Nationwide, superior seed quality from Gujarat keeps demand high, especially for staple varieties like G-10 and Mathdi in Rajasthan. Overall, the market is underpinned by both strong fundamentals and external support, indicating a bullish undertone ahead.

📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• India: Summer arrivals are robust in Saurashtra (notably Mahuva, Talaja, Bhavnagar), but Banaskantha and Sabarkantha show lower output versus the prior year.
• Brazil: FOB prices stable, export momentum steady as international demand meets adequate domestic supply.
• Government Sales (India): NAFED’s proactive sales at strong prices ($64.80–$65.40/quintal) and higher minimum support price have boosted market sentiment and increased acreage for groundnut, partly at the expense of cotton.
• Seed Demand: High demand for quality seed, particularly from Gujarat, for national plantings and for established varieties (G-10, Mathdi, Girnar, 32).

📊 Fundamentals

• Peanuts for Maharashtra rose by $0.06/kg ($0.96 to ~$1.02/kg), reflecting improved market interest.
• The premium G-20 variety surged by ~$18–$24/quintal, now $290.40–$291.60, hinting at near-term potential above $300/quintal.
• Increased minimum support price (MSP) for groundnut encourages acreage expansion—shift noted from cotton/lentil to groundnut in several areas.
• Commercial and government stocks experience solid demand, further stabilizing prices.
• Indian groundnut seeds remain prominent nationwide due to reliable germination and variety performance.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• India: Saurashtra – Favourable weather with early monsoon arrival drives sowing activity; Banaskantha and Sabarkantha remain under weather watch, as rains will be crucial for crop recovery.
• Short-term forecast (next 7 days): Scattered thunderstorms expected in Gujarat and Rajasthan, supportive of emerging and sowing-stage crops. No significant drought threats in major producing areas.
• Brazil: Normal seasonal conditions with no major anomalies expected in the near term.

🌐 Production & Stock Comparison

*Source: USDA/FAS, national authorities, trade estimates (2024)

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 💡 Buyers: Consider strategic bookings, especially for Indian Java and Bold varieties, as premium grades show upward momentum and strong seed demand.
• 💡 Sellers: Take advantage of the bullish pricing trend for G-20 and premium grades, but monitor progress of monsoon and government auction pace.
• 💡 Importers: Diversify origin strategies (India, Brazil) as both offer steady supply—watch currency shifts and freight differentials.
• 💡 Speculators: Limited downside risk short-term; monitor updates on monsoon and potential government intervention for fresh cues.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Summary: Market supported by early monsoon in India, government sales, strong seed and export demand, and stable Brazilian exports. Upward price momentum is likely in premium Indian grades, with overall firm tone in Brazil. Monitor weather developments for cues on 1–2 month outlook.