California Walnut Market – May 2025 Shipments Hit New Lows 🌰

📍 Inshell shipments down 68.5% in May – Kernel shipments fall 37.3%, demand remains sluggish

The California walnut industry continues to face pressure, with May inshell shipments down 68.5% and kernel shipments down 37.3% year-over-year. Overall, inshell shipments for the crop year are down 56.3%, while kernel shipments have fallen -20.4%. A quiet market, limited inventories, and poor demand from key markets such as India continue to weigh on sales.

📊 1. Shipment Summary – May 2025

🌱 2. Crop Update

Final Crop Receipts (2024):
- Conventional: 590,481 tons
- Organic: 14,807 tons
🔻 The total 2024 crop is 11.9% below the forecast of 670,000 tons.

📈 3. Market Conditions

💤 The market remains quiet for the 1–2 months, with low buyer engagement.
⚠️ Buyers want products that sellers don't have; this mismatch has limited trade activity.
💰 Price differences between sellers for the same item can vary $0.10–$0.15/lb.
🇨🇱 Chilean walnut suppliers reported strong sales, especially to Europe (retail) and Dubai (inshell).
🇮🇳 India’s demand remains weak due to customs duty investigations, making it the weakest major market.
📈 Chilean strength could help CA sellers with new crop pricing.

💸 4. Price Trends – May 2025 (Visual Summary)

Chandler Walnut Prices (Page 7):

Chandler Inshell Jumbo/Large: trending upward from lows, but still well below previous highs.
Chandler LHP 20%: similar moderate recovery, indicating slow price rebound.

🌍 5. Export Market Signals

🇮🇳 India: Weak due to legal/investigative barriers.
🇦🇪 Dubai: Chile is currently dominating in-shell trade.
🇪🇺 Europe: Strong demand for retail walnuts from Chile, limited CA participation.

🔮 6. Outlook & Recommendations

Outlook

Demand is likely to remain weak into early summer unless conditions change.
India may remain subdued until customs/duty issues are resolved.
Chile’s success may help raise global pricing expectations, but could also reduce market share for CA unless pricing aligns.

Recommendations

For Sellers:✅ Use Chile’s momentum to promote new crop pricing early✅ Focus on flexible pricing to capture missed trade✅ Be proactive in alternative markets like Europe & MENA

For Buyers:✅ Leverage current market oversupply to negotiate favourable contracts✅ Watch for inventory tightness in specific specs if prices rebound in Q3

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