Global Agricultural Production Report – June 2025 (USDA)

🔹 1. Rice – India Leads with Another Record Year

• India’s 2025/26 marketing year (MY) rice production is projected at an all-time high of 151.0 million metric tons (milled basis), up 2% from last month, 1% from the previous year, and 11% above the 5-year average.
• The harvested area remains at a record 51.0 million hectares, while yields increased to a historic 4.44 tons/ha (rough basis).
• Key drivers: an early and extended southwest monsoon and favourable growing conditions across the Indo-Gangetic Plains.
• India’s rice production is predominantly from the kharif season (82%), followed by rabi (11%) and summer rice (7%).

🔹 2. Wheat – Record in India, Decline in Ukraine

• India’s wheat production for MY 2025/26 is estimated at a record 117.5 million metric tons, up 4% from the previous year. Harvested area is 32.9 million hectares with yields at 3.57 tons/ha, slightly down from May but still above average.
• Ukraine’s wheat production is forecast at 23.0 million tons, unchanged from last month but 2% below last year, as the area declined due to ongoing conflict and limited reliable data from occupied regions.
• In Uzbekistan, high temperatures during flowering reduced expected yields, pushing production down to 6.1 million tons, 9% lower year-over-year.
• Northwest Africa (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia) is projected to produce 8.1 million tons, up 1.4 million tons from last year. Tunisia is set to achieve a bumper crop of 1.4 million tons, 32% above its 5-year average.
• Spain is also expected to harvest 8.2 million tons, +21% above the 5-year average due to abundant spring rainfall.

🔹 3. Corn – South Africa Recovers After El Niño Drought

• South Africa’s corn production for MY 2024/25 is estimated at 15.8 million tons, up 17% from the previous year despite a slightly reduced area.
• Yield is projected at 5.33 tons/ha, supported by favourable rainfall from February to March that offset early-season drought stress.

🔹 4. Sunflowerseed – Russia to Set New Record

• Russia’s sunflowerseed production for MY 2025/26 is forecast at a record 17.5 million tons, up 4% from last year, driven by an expanded area of 9.6 million hectares and improved yields of 1.82 tons/ha.
• As of late May, 8.4 million hectares had already been planted, well ahead of last year’s pace (7.0 mha).

🔹 5. Palm Oil – Malaysia Raises Output Forecast

• Malaysia’s palm oil production for MY 2024/25 is revised upward to 19.4 million tons, up 4% from last month, although still 2% below the previous year.
• Crude palm oil (CPO) output in May exceeded both last year and the 5-year average, aided by normalised weather and strong price incentives.

📊 Global Crop Production Snapshot (Selected Highlights)

📌 Summary & Outlook

• India stands out with record-breaking yields in both rice and wheat, driven by optimal weather and high input usage.
• Ukraine and Uzbekistan face production setbacks due to war-related disruptions and weather stress.
• North Africa and Spain show strong recovery potential after a difficult start to the growing season.
• Palm oil and sunflower markets are rebounding, indicating better global oilseed availability.
• Overall, the global grain supply outlook remains stable, with most key producers reporting either strong or improving output conditions.