June 2025 is shaping up as a pivotal period for the global almonds market, with fresh dynamics at play across major production and consumption regions. The momentum in domestic demand, particularly from Australia, has become a focal point alongside marked fluctuations across key export destinations. According to the latest Almond Board of Australia data, domestic sales surged by 9% year-on-year in the first two months of the 2025/26 selling season, largely credited to new, high-impact marketing campaigns.

This growth comes even as the broader healthy snacking segment faces cost-of-living headwinds. Overseas, Chinese demand in early 2025/26 softened down 5% amid ongoing U.S.–China trade tensions and tariff uncertainty. Meanwhile, India's appetite for in-shell almonds remains robust, posting a 14% increase, and Turkiye has emerged as a breakout buyer with a record 178% demand rise, primarily for manufacturing-grade product. These shifting trade flows have been accompanied by a generally stable to slightly downward price trend, restrained by abundant inventory from the U.S. and Spain, though regional weather and crop quality remain crucial for forward pricing. All eyes are now on the upcoming Northern Hemisphere weather and the evolving trade environment, which will determine price volatility and trading opportunities in the weeks ahead.

📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Australia: Domestic sales +9% Y/Y (first two months 2025/26), with total Australian almond volumes rising 3%.
• China: Early season sales -5% Y/Y, demand kept in check by trade/tariff uncertainty with the USA.
• India: In-shell almond imports up 14%, reflecting continued strong growth in healthy/nutrition snacks.
• Turkiye: Demand surges +178%, mainly for manufacturing—potential for further expansion as local food processing grows.
• US & Spain: Inventories remain ample but manageable; the Spanish market saw prices stabilise as the new crop approaches.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: Indicate a stable production outlook for California, but summer heat and water access remain risks.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money in US almond futures shows net long but reduced vs Q1 2025, awaiting further price signals.
• Crop Acreage: US acreage stable, slight declining trend in non-irrigated areas; Spanish and Australian acreage expanding.
• Inventories: Global almond inventories are slightly above the 5-year average, but forward sales are strong thanks to Indian and Turkish demand.

☁️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact

• California: Summer forecasts suggest above-average temperatures with a moderate drought threat in the Central Valley. Early set is good, but late heatwaves could stress crops and affect kernel size.
• Spain: Seasonal conditions favourable—rainfall adequate, temperatures moderate. Good prospects for the 2025 crop, but close watch on heat later in June needed.
• Australia: Mild, dry winter forecast supports harvesting, little risk of weather disruption for the remainder of 2025 crop.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Table

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor US Central Valley weather for late-June heat spikes—potential for upward volatility if crop stress emerges.
• Consider covering forward needs for manufacturing or ingredient grades: Turkish and Indian demand may tighten supply.
• Stable prices in Spain/Australia offer an opportunity to hedge against US volatility.
• Chinese demand soft—don’t anticipate short-term rebound, but watch for policy updates on tariffs.
• Iranian and speciality grades may face price uplift—export buyers advised not to delay.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• US (Washington D.C., FAS): 6.75–6.85 EUR/kg (Stable, limited downward risk short-term)
• Spain (Madrid, FOB, Marcona): 6.65–6.85 EUR/kg (Firm, narrow range)
• Iran (Tehran, FOB, Mamra): 11.00–11.40 EUR/kg (Potential for further small gains if export demand persists)