Sugar Market Surges โ ICE No.5 Rallies Above USD 475/t on Technical Buying
On 16 June 2025, ICE Sugar No.5 futures posted the
strongest daily gain since March. The
August 2025 contract surged by 3.02% to USD 479.80/t (EUR 446.21/t), driven by heavy volume, short-covering, and renewed interest from speculative funds. However,
EU spot prices remain unresponsive, and structural market pressure persists in physical trade.
๐ ICE Sugar No.5 โ Closing Summary (16.06.2025)
(Conversion rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)
๐ช๐บ EU Spot Market โ Flat Despite Futures Rally
๐ EU FCA spot prices remain stable at
EUR 0.50โ0.52/kg, with no noticeable response to futures gains.๐ฆ Industrial buyers remain passive. Most processors are covered through Q3.๐ฑ Stolbur disease continues to affect southern German beet areas but
has yet to influence spot pricing at scale.
๐๏ธ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, verified 16.06.2025)
๐ Price Comparison Table
๐ Global Drivers
- ๐ Short-covering from funds after weeks of bearish pressure
- ๐พ No supply risks from Brazil or India โ exports remain strong
- ๐ฑ Strong USD continues to limit sugar buying in non-dollar markets
- ๐ง Physical demand flat across Europe โ futures disconnected from spot
๐ฎ 3-Day Forecast (17โ19 June 2025)
๐
Outlook:Short-term gains may continue, but sustainability depends on renewed physical or weather-related support.
๐งญ Conclusion & Strategy
โ
Strong upside day, driven by speculative momentum๐ฆ The EU market remains fundamentally oversuppliedโ ๏ธ Physical buyers remain reluctant โ structure is still bearish
๐ Recommendations:
- ๐ Buyers: Continue to secure spot sugar at EUR 0.52/kg or less โ no rush to chase
- ๐ฆ Sellers: Use Rally for selective Q3 hedging opportunities
- ๐ Traders: Tactical long setups viable above USD 472/t, but watch for fade if volume drops
๐
Summary:The sugar market rebounded on momentum, not fundamentals. Without sustained demand, this rally may remain short-lived.
