The global peas market is entering a period of heightened volatility and opportunity as the 2025/26 season unfolds. Ukraine, a key player, has nearly completed pea sowing, reaching 98% of its planned 217.4 thousand hectares—on par with last year's pace despite initial analyst forecasts for growth. However, hopes for increased production have faded due to adverse weather: a combination of precipitation deficits and frost during sowing threatens yields, with projections downgraded to 420-450 thousand tons, down from 465 thousand tons harvested in 2024. Export targets remain ambitious at 400 thousand tons, and Ukrainian peas are set to remain an influential force on the global market.

On the demand side, the outlook is robust. India's extension of duty-free yellow pea imports through March 2026 is set to boost demand, and the opening of the Chinese market—especially given China's fresh 100% tariff on Canadian peas—gives Ukraine a major competitive edge. Buyers from Turkey, India, Italy, UAE, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Malaysia are expected to maintain strong interest as well.

Nevertheless, supply-side risks persist. High farmgate and export prices reflect tightening availability: peas at Ukrainian ports traded at $260-285/t (UAH 13,500-15,000/t), a positive sign for producers but a challenge for price-sensitive buyers. Weather remains crucial: further yield reductions could spark additional price gains, especially as European and UK prices show steadiness to upwards momentum. All eyes are now on weather patterns in Black Sea and key European regions to gauge final yield and pricing outcomes.

📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Ukraine's 2025 pea sowing: 212k ha (98% of plan); no significant area growth vs. 2024.
• Harvest outlook: 420-450kt (vs. 465kt last year) amid spring drought, frost during sowing.
• Exports steady: 400kt forecast, with India, China, Turkey, and EU as key buyers.
• China's 100% tariff on Canadian peas increases demand for alternatives, favoring Ukraine.
• Indian extension of duty-free yellow pea imports through March 2026 sustains demand.
• Purchase prices in Ukraine remain high due to tight supply and export demand.

📊 Fundamentals

*Projected area; may be adjusted as final data is reported.

☁️ Weather & Yield Outlook

• Ukraine: Spring drought and late frosts hampered early development; risk of lower yields is high. Current weather in June sees improvement but lacks major rainfall events needed for yield recovery.
• Key regions (Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad): Remain dry, with soil moisture below average. Favorable temperatures could still support late crops if rains return.
• Europe: France, UK, and Germany report mixed conditions—localized dryness but no severe crop threat currently.
• Canada: Climate remains a wildcard; should drought persist as in past years, further upward price risk is possible.

🌐 Global Stocks & Trade

• Canada: 100% export tariff on peas to China will redirect global flows, increasing competition for alternative origins like Ukraine and EU.
• Ukraine: May see stable to growing export share, especially to China and India.
• EU/UK: Stable to marginal growth in pea area; supplying mainly regional food and feed markets.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• ⏫ Farmers/sellers: Consider forward selling a portion of the crop at current historically high prices; incremental sales advisable.
• ⏳ Exporters: Lock in contracts for shipment to India and China, especially in yellow peas, before the bulk of Northern Hemisphere harvest sets the tone.
• 📦 Buyers: Secure supply now if unsure about end-summer weather; expect upside price risk if weather deteriorates in Ukraine or Canada.
• 🌦️ Monitor: Weekly weather and USDA/global stocks reports for signals about further price direction.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast