India Grain and Feed Market Update – June 2025

Record Harvests of Rice, Wheat, and Corn Expected Amid Strong Monsoon Forecast

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🧾 Summary

India's Ministry of Agriculture reports a record grain production of 354 MMT in the 2024/2025 Indian Crop Year (ICY), up 21.7 MMT from the previous year. This is attributed to favourable monsoon conditions in 2024. For the 2025/2026 season, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts above-normal rainfall, leading to upward revisions in production, consumption, exports, and stock estimates for rice, wheat, and corn.

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📊 Key Forecasts for MY 2025/2026

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🌧️ Weather & Crop Conditions

• Monsoon onset on May 24 – earliest in 16 years.
• IMD predicts 106% of the long-period average (±4%) rainfall.
• Strongest rains in central and peninsular India; slightly below average in the Northeast.

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🌾 Wheat

• Record output of 117.5 MMT from 32.8 million hectares.
• Strong yields due to ideal weather and timely planting.
• The government procured 30.5 MMT – sufficient for food programs and open market operations.
• Stock limits imposed on private traders to curb hoarding (e.g., 3,000 MT for wholesalers).

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🍚 Rice

• 2024/25 record crop of 149 MMT, 2025/26 forecast at 150 MMT.
• MSP procurement for 2024/25 already >54 MMT; may reach 55 MMT.
• Record rice exports in 2024/25: 24.5 MMT, 2025/26 projected at 25 MMT.
• Domestic prices remain soft despite high procurement and export pace.

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🌽 Corn

• 2024/25 production revised up to 42.6 MMT, 2025/26 forecast at 42.0 MMT.
• The planted area increased to 12 million hectares.
• Ethanol demand is strong – FSI consumption to hit 19 MMT.
• Feed use is slightly down due to substitution with cheaper grains like broken rice.

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📦 Stocks

• Rice: Government stocks at 40.5 MMT as of May 1, 2025 – 4× higher than required.
• Wheat: Ending stocks expected to reach 16.7 MMT in 2025/26.
• Corn: Ending stocks revised up to 2.0 MMT.

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🔭 Outlook

India enters MY 2025/26 with ample supplies and strong procurement, especially for rice and wheat. While export potential is strong, domestic market controls remain active — including export bans, stock limits, and MSP policies — as the government seeks to contain food inflation ahead of upcoming elections.

Sourse: USDA