The global sunflower market is experiencing notable turbulence as prices retreat across major hubs, weighed down by a combination of robust supply, softer demand in certain regions, and fluctuating global weather patterns. On SAFEX, sunflower contracts saw marked declines—most front months dropped over 2% on June 19, 2025, with spot prices like Jun 25 closing 215 ZAR lower at 9,351 ZAR/t. Meanwhile, FOB and FCA spot prices for sunflower seeds and kernels from key Black Sea and European origins remain steady to slightly weaker, reflecting subdued trading sentiment and steady-to-ample availabilities. Recent trade data reveals persistent price competition among Ukraine, Bulgaria, Moldova, and China, while Ukrainian offers (FOB Odesa: 0.55 EUR/kg for seeds, 0.54 EUR/kg for meal) anchor the market floor.

However, the market faces critical junctures in fundamentals: global stock rebuild continues after previous years' disruptions, but planted acreage in Ukraine, Russia, and the EU is ticking up only modestly. Weather risk looms as the main variable; forecasts hint at increasing heat stress in southern Ukraine and parts of Russia during the flowering stage, while abundant rains in southeastern Europe could bolster yields if disease pressure is managed. Demand-side, sunflower oil’s discount to competing oils narrows, which may curb crush margins and near-term raw seed use. Traders eye both USDA acreage updates and ongoing Black Sea logistics for the next market move.

📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• 🟢 Supply: Large carryover stocks in Ukraine and Russia; moderate acreage expansion for 2025/26, but below earlier expectations.
• 🟠 Demand: EU and Turkish crushers buying cautiously; sunflower oil price discount to other oils narrows, pressuring near-term demand.
• 🔵 Global Trade: Black Sea logistics steady but subject to geopolitical friction; Chinese imports are stable, but not rising.
• 🟡 Speculation: Funds are lightly net short; recent price action may prompt mild short-covering on weather rallies.
• 📝 Key Reports: The Market is awaiting the USDA acreage and stocks report, as well as regional yield forecasts.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA (June 2025): Estimated global sunflower seed production for 2024/25 at 58.4 million t (up 2% y/y); Ukraine at 17.4 mln t, Russia 15.8 mln t, EU 10.5 mln t.
• 2025 Black Sea Crop Outlook: Planted area up marginally; weather risk heightened in southern Ukraine and the Volga region.
• Global Stocks: Rebuilding; projected 2025/26 ending stocks at 5.2 mln t (highest since 2021).
• Sunflower Oil Market: Price premium to soyoil shrinks, discouraging aggressive crush.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• 🌦️ Ukraine & S Russia: Next 10 days: Above-normal temps and limited rain risk, heat stress during reproduction phases.
• 🌧️ EU (Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania): Widespread rain spells—potential for above average yields if fungal disease threat is managed.
• ⛈️ Argentina: Recent drought conditions are continuing in some areas, but little global supply impact is expected this marketing year.

🌎 Production & Stock Comparison (2024/25)

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 🔴 For Producers: Consider forward sales on weather rallies or scale-up selling above the current market for old-crop. Monitor weather risk for possible late-season gains.
• 🟠 For Crushers: Maintain flexible procurement given stable supply and uncertain oil demand. Watch oilseed-oil spread dynamics.
• 🟡 Traders: Potential for brief technical rebounds if Black Sea weather worsens or logistics see disruptions; overall short-term bias remains neutral to negative unless there is pronounced weather stress.
• 🟢 End-Users: Adequate nearby coverage suggested; avoid chasing market lower absent severe Black Sea crop threats.

⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)