The rapeseed market has experienced significant momentum, closing higher for the third consecutive day at Euronext. The August front-month contract broke above the psychologically important 500 EUR/t level—its highest mark in nearly four months. This robust price action is underpinned by a mix of local and global events. A looming heatwave in France, one of the EU's key rapeseed producers, is raising fears of yield losses at a critical point in the growing season. Meanwhile, ongoing tensions in the Middle East—including the risk of expanded conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran—could disrupt oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and push benchmark Brent crude oil towards 90 USD/bl.

Given the strong correlation between rapeseed and energy markets—primarily driven by demand for rapeseed oil in biodiesel—further increases in crude could buoy oilseed prices even more. Concurrently, activity remains strong on ICE's Canadian Canola futures, also seeing gains.

Market participants are closely monitoring weather patterns across Europe, speculative positioning, and the energy market’s direction for cues on the next moves. With Euronext contracts holding above key thresholds and physical offers steady to firmer, traders are weighing their next steps in an increasingly volatile environment.

📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Weather risks: Hot and dry conditions forecast for France could reduce EU yields during a crucial period for rapeseed development.
• Energy prices: Brent oil up 3% this week; any escalation of Middle East tensions could further tighten global energy supplies and support oilseeds.
• Global trade flows: Stable Ukrainian offers (recently firmed), and European premium prices reflect tight old-crop stocks ahead of the new harvest.
• Speculator activity: Managed funds are increasing long positions, anticipating further upward price movement amidst growing geopolitical and climate risks.

📊 Fundamentals Compared

Note: Tight European stocks and steady demand keep the supply outlook snug for the new crop, with variability hinging on weather.

🌦️ Weather & Yield Outlook

• France: Forecast temperatures of 33–36°C for the next five days. Heat stress at seed fill can cut yields by 5–10% locally if rain is insufficient.
• Germany, UK: Currently mild, but models indicate a move to a warmer, drier pattern into late June.
• Ukraine: Showers support late maturing fields, but pockets of dryness remain in central/north zones.
• Canada (Prairies): Favourable temperatures and on-time planting, but July rainfall will be crucial for canola yield.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Watch closely for next week’s European weather—persistent heat may trigger further gains.
• Monitor Brent crude and geopolitical developments; oil market surges could push rapeseed and canola even higher.
• Consider selling old-crop stocks at current premium prices if logistical risks allow.
• New-crop buyers: Use weather setbacks to secure supply for Q4 at current levels.
• Producers: Stay patient where possible, as volatility and upside remain likely with weather and war risks unresolved.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Volatility is likely to persist as the market digests weather and geopolitical news. Downside risk if weather improves; upside if heat persists or new conflicts erupt.