Turkish Hazelnut Market – TMO Surprise Auction Stirs Market, Buyers Hold Back Despite Price Drop
Turkish Hazelnut Market – TMO Surprise Auction Stirs Market, Buyers Hold Back Despite Price Drop
📆 Report Date: June 22, 2025 | Report No. 2025-23📊 Market Snapshot (Week 25)
📉 1-Week Market Trend: -4.88%📈 12-Month Performance: +19.94%📈 3-Year Trend: +41.99%📉 10-Year Trend: -34.15%
📌 Key Market Developments
🔥 TMO Launches Unexpected Auction
- TMO released ~10,000 mt of 2022 crop via auction at 150–152 TRY/kg—a +25% jump over last sale levels.
- Highest bids reached 152 TRY/kg, but allocation results are still pending.
- If awarded, older crop volumes will re-enter the market, likely increasing the availability of blended stock.
🧊 Low Trade Volume & Buyer Reluctance
- Export demand remains weak.
- 2025 crop offers are too expensive for buyers, resulting in near-zero forward contracting.
- Many buyers prefer to cover residual 2024 stocks, hoping for better entry points.
💱 FX & Monetary Policy Stable
- Turkish Central Bank held interest rates at 46%, keeping the Lira relatively stable.
- Current TRY/EUR exchange rate: ~46.1
📈 Bullish Market Indicators
- Revised crop estimates expected to be lower → speculative pressure may increase.
- The remaining TMO inventory (~20,000 mt) will likely be rationed in future auctions.
- Quality issues persist → Good natural kernels are expected to command a premium.
- Turkish farmers are still holding raw stock, expecting better prices.
- Cost inflation (minimum wage, energy, pest control) pressures continue.
- Stinkbug damage (hollow kernels) is not yet fully priced in.
- No relief from alternative origins (Italy, Georgia, Azerbaijan).
📉 Bearish Market Indicators
- Market leader claims to be fully covered, reducing bulk demand.
- High financing costs reduce the incentive to hold speculative positions.
- The price ceiling for Chinese buyers is likely reached.
- Demand from the chocolate industry remains uncertain, with lower tender volumes.
- Old stock from TMO (2022 harvest) is still distorting small kernel prices.
- Intense exporter competition + oversupply of small calibres + low-grade paste.
🔮 Outlook & Strategic Takeaways
📌 June–July Watchpoints:
- July orchard inspections + revised crop estimates to clarify the supply picture.
- Post-auction TMO action may either stabilise or further fragment the market.
- Pest pressure (e.g., stinkbug) could be a key price driver.
📊 Export Trends
- 2024/25 exports projected at ~320,000 MT.
- Export activity remains below long-term potential, despite high prices.
- Current offers are highly fragmented by grade, crop year, and processor.
📢 Strategic Advice for Buyers:
- Be selective; avoid blended offers from old stock unless clearly labelled.
- Monitor TMO allocation results next week to assess real inventory movement.
- Consider early booking of quality kernels, especially for Q4 delivery.
- Price lists must clearly distinguish 2022/2023/2024 origins.
- Prepare for a two-tier market: natural kernels vs. processed goods under pressure.
🎯 Why this format?✔ Transparent, weekly price trends✔ Integrated FX, macro, crop, and trade data✔ Actionable insights for procurement and strategy teams
📅 Next Key Milestone: July crop estimate & stinkbug survey results. Let us know if you want tailored tracking for your supply strategy.
