The global rice market is currently navigating a phase of remarkable resilience, with prices at both major exchanges and physical markets exhibiting stability in the face of seasonal and structural uncertainties. As of late June 2025, rice futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) reflect minimal fluctuations: the active July 2025 contract closed at 13.47 US-Cent/cwt, down just 0.06 from the previous session—a change of less than half a per cent. Vietnamese physical exports (FOB Hanoi) also remain unchanged, with key export types such as long white 5%, jasmine, and calrose all holding steady. Indian export prices, a key barometer for global supply sentiment, are similarly static.

Behind this price stability lies a complex interplay of fundamentals. Export restrictions from India remain a recurring headline risk, while Southeast Asian supplies are under watch due to patchy rainfall forecasts. Speculative positioning appears neutral, and there is a notable absence of strong bullish momentum despite recent weather scares in the Mekong Delta and persistent dryness in northern India. With global inventories at comfortable yet vigilance-demanding levels, both buyers and sellers are manoeuvring for clarity as planting and harvest prospects evolve. USDA reports project little change in US acreage, while Asian crop calendars move toward the critical reproductive phase under watchful meteorological eyes. Big moves may lie ahead, but for now, calm prevails in the rice trade.

📈 Prices & Market Table

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• USDA Reports: US planted acreage projected unchanged; export sales in line with seasonal averages.
• Global Inventories: FAO and USDA estimate global stocks at healthy but carefully watched levels—major exporters (India, Thailand, Vietnam) remain crucial.
• India Export Policy: Export restrictions or changes to minimum export prices from India remain a leading risk factor for global price surges.
• Speculative Positioning: CBOT data indicates balanced fund activity, suggesting a lack of conviction among large traders for imminent big moves.
• Physical Market: Offers from Vietnam and India show price stability, aligning with unchanged buyer demand and cautious trader sentiment.

📊 Fundamentals by Country

☀️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• Mekong Delta (Vietnam): Forecasts call for mixed rainfall; patchy storms may ease earlier dryness but not fully offset moisture deficits in some provinces. Crop yields could see a slight downward revision if conditions do not improve.
• Eastern India: Monsoon onset is slightly delayed, with below-average precipitation in key states (West Bengal, Odisha). Watch for heightened export policy activity if dryness persists.
• Thailand: Seasonal dryness in the central and northern regions continues. Irrigation supplies are sufficient but tight; another dry spell may cut potential yields for the late summer crop.
• US Southern States: Rice states in the US report normal planting progress; local showers have aided soil moisture.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Physical buyers are advised to consider medium-term cover as weather and Indian policy risks persist.
• Sellers should take advantage of stable prices to secure forward contracts for late 2025 delivery.
• Monitor speculative flows on CBOT for shifts in managed money that may herald directional price changes.
• Vigilance is required around upcoming Indian government export announcements and July US acreage reports.
• Be wary of weather volatility in monsoon-affected regions, which could prompt abrupt price adjustments.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast