The global sunflower market is currently navigating a phase of relative stability, punctuated by measured gains on SAFEX futures and persistent firmness in East European spot markets. Market participants are eyeing moderate price advances driven by a blend of steady buying from oil processors and cautious grower selling, each influenced by tightening global stocks, logistics bottlenecks, and rising speculative interest. The latest SAFEX closing prices signal modest strength, while Ukrainian FCA and FOB sunflower offers remain flat week-on-week, pointing to strong underlying demand but a lack of fresh bullish catalysts.

Importantly, regional weather outlooks for key Black Sea and South African growing areas inject both risk and opportunity, with potential heat spells and dryness in southern Ukraine and Russia threatening yield prospects, while South African fields benefit from favourable rainfall forecasts. Against this backdrop, attention continues to pivot around crop acreage forecasts, USDA updates, and geopolitical developments affecting the Black Sea export corridor.

📈 Prices & Market Tables

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• USDA & Regional Crop Reports: Global sunflower seed production for 2024/25 is projected at marginally lower levels due to reduced Ukrainian acreage and potential heat stress in Russia and Ukraine.
• Inventories: Black Sea ending stocks trend lower, with Ukrainian on-farm stocks estimated at multi-year lows following aggressive exports and robust crush demand.
• Speculative Positioning: Money managers have slightly increased long positions on sunflower oil contracts, reflecting demand optimism.
• Geopolitics & Logistics: Periodic interruptions to Black Sea ports and the shifting balance between road/rail and seaborne logistics keep export flows fluid but vulnerable to disruption.
• South Africa: SAFEX futures supported by tight domestic supplies and brisk domestic processor demand amid stable rand/euro.

📊 Fundamental Data & Global Comparisons

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• Ukraine & Russia: Medium-range forecasts indicate periods of above-normal temperatures and below-average rainfall in southern oblasts and key Russian producing regions. This raises the risk for crop stress, especially if conditions persist into July flowering.
• EU (Bulgaria, Romania): Weather pattern remains average to slightly drier; some rainfall relief in Bulgaria boosts yield confidence, though Romania needs follow-up showers soon.
• South Africa: The 15-day outlook calls for scattered but timely rainfall, stabilising the late-planted sunflower crop and encouraging robust yield realisations.

📆 Trading & Market Outlook

• Sunflower seed and oil prices are likely to remain firm to mildly stronger due to tightening Black Sea supplies, robust global processing margins, and growing weather risk premiums.
• Buyers: Consider spot and near-term coverage before further weather-driven upside. Monitor Black Sea logistics and port status closely.
• Sellers: Gradual marketing is advisable. Retain a portion unpriced to benefit from potential late-season supply shocks.
• Exporters should track parity movements and shipping rate volatility to optimise margin capture.
• Procurement teams: Use SAFEX and Euronext for hedge positioning, especially given unusual volatility in global oilseed markets.

⏩ 3-Day Price Forecast: Key Markets