The celery market, long impacted by oversupply and slumping prices, is now showing distinct signs of stabilization and cautious optimism. Over the past quarter, a glut in production and lingering stocks drove values down by 0.30 to 0.36 USD per kg. As the anticipated market correction set in, trade volumes diminished and buyer sentiment cooled, threatening to stifle what is typically a robust demand season for celery. However, the tide appears to be turning. With new arrivals from major producing regions—Javra, Neemuch, Mandsaur, Vikarabad, Nandurbar, and Jamnagar—helping to normalize supply chains, the market saw an estimated 27–28% increase in production, inducing a pronounced but temporary crash in pricing (down by as much as 0.60 USD per kg).

Now, the worst seems over. Stabilizing supply, strong export curiosity, and a lack of further liquidation sales are providing underlying price support. Demand, though still subdued, shows early signs of improvement. With higher-quality stocks scarce and reports of tanking Pakistani imports to North India, both traders and processors now eye the months ahead with renewed confidence, anticipating further gains as availability tightens and quality concerns persist.

📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Supply ballooned by ~27–28% YOY, led by robust sowing in key states.
• Older and lower-grade stocks now seen as expensive, with diminished quality premium and limited appeal.
• Demand remains slack but appears to be improving; any uptick could spur rapid price increases (up to 0.48 USD/kg expected short term).
• Pakistani imports stalled, tightening available stocks in main consumption hubs like Delhi.
• Primary buying is shifting to Ayurvedic companies and the processing sector, particularly in grades 1.44–1.56 USD/kg.
• Over 80% of this season’s crop has reached the market, leaving little risk of oversupply through late summer.

📊 Fundamentals

☁️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• Madhya Pradesh & Western India: Recent moderate rainfall and ideal day–night temperatures have aided late crop maintenance and quality retention. Some pockets face excess humidity, marginally impacting shelf-life for remaining stocks.
• Southern India: Conditions generally favorable for remnant late harvests. Weather risk is currently low for new planting cycles, though heavy monsoonal events could slightly disrupt supply later in July.
• Overall, near-term weather supports gradual quality improvement in market arrivals, boosting trade confidence.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

• India: Dominant supplier for Asian and Middle Eastern markets; this year’s bumper harvest has left local stocks well-distributed but with notable drop in premium quality.
• Pakistan: Previously an important source for North India, currently out of the market due to halted exports.
• Europe/US: Stable market with relatively low impact from Indian supply swings; remains a net importer in off-season months, but not directly competitive with current Indian dynamics.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Bargain hunting advised for washed/cleaned celery, which remains in structural shortage and may command a premium as stockpiles deplete.
• Expect increased volatility if even minor demand uptick occurs, with possible 15–20% upward price swing for quality grades.
• Short sales in stale/low-grade stock should be avoided, as bargain levels are likely reached and rebound risk is elevated.
• Monitor weather patterns in July and export policy adjustments from Pakistan for potential new supply shocks.
• Growers should prepare for sustained bullishness through midsummer, though active inventory management is key.

3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Indian Exchanges)

Overall: The celery market is navigating a fragile but improving landscape—watch for further upside on quality product, with volatility risk in the lower grades as consumer sentiment warms heading into the new month.