The rapeseed market finds itself at a pivotal juncture as we approach mid-2025. After a strong start to the year driven by tightening stocks, European and Canadian rapeseed (canola) prices are experiencing a notable pullback, reflecting mounting harvest pressure and volatile weather patterns across major producing regions. Futures prices on key exchanges such as ICE CA and Euronext have retreated by 2–3% over the past week, signalling bearish sentiment despite robust demand from the biofuel and feed markets. This market softening comes just as new crop supplies begin to flow, particularly from Ukraine—which remains a price leader for the region—and Western Europe. Yet, persistent concerns about adverse weather conditions in Canada and the Black Sea region inject a layer of uncertainty for the upcoming yield prospects. Meanwhile, local cash prices in major producing and export locations show a mixed picture, with Ukrainian rapeseeds offered on an uptick, underscoring the region’s resilient fundamentals.

Market players are paying close attention to the latest USDA WASDE revision, which hints at slightly higher ending stocks for rapeseed and canola worldwide, but also acknowledges the precarious balance between strong consumption and production risks. Investment fund positioning suggests cautious optimism, but recent corrections may offer tactical buying opportunities for traders and processors as new supply comes online. Against this backdrop, a close watch on weather developments in the Canadian Prairies, Ukraine, and Western Europe is warranted, as these will likely set the tone for both short-term volatility and medium-term price direction in the global rapeseed complex.

📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Harvesting begins in Ukraine and the EU: Early field reports suggest yields in Ukraine and France are average to slightly above expectations, with initial quality good.
• Canadian planting progress: Recent delays in sowing, especially in Saskatchewan and Alberta, fuel ongoing concerns over potential yield drag. Prairie acreage is near multi-year highs, but weather risks persist.
• Biofuel policy support: Firm EU and Canadian demand tied to renewable diesel remains a key consumption driver, insulating rapeseed from deeper price corrections seen elsewhere in oilseeds.
• Chinese and Middle Eastern import demand: Steady interest for new-crop European and Black Sea supplies as price-competitive alternatives to soybean oil.

📊 Fundamentals

• Latest USDA WASDE: Slight upward revision in global stocks to 7.2 Mmt, but global rapeseed/canola use still projected to rise 2% YoY.
• Speculative positioning: Net managed money positions on ICE remain moderately long, but saw aggressive profit-taking this week.
• EU/Black Sea exports: Ukraine and France remain highly competitive on export offers, benefiting from robust logistics and port access.
• Crush margins: European crushers maintain comfortable margins, supporting ongoing demand for new crop seed deliveries.

☀️ Weather Outlook (Key Growing Regions)

• Canada (Prairies): Recent showers have provided some relief, but forecast models predict below-normal rainfall for the week ahead, raising worries about pod filling and final yield potential.
• Ukraine/Black Sea: Hot, dry conditions in late June could trim output if they continue, especially in southern oblasts. Forecast leans towards warmer, drier trend for next 7–10 days.
• Western EU (Germany, France): Near-normal temps and good precipitation this month aid stable yield prospects, supporting early harvest flows.

📦 Global Production & Stocks Snapshot

🎯 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term bearishness is likely to persist on harvest acceleration in the EU and Black Sea, but the downside is limited due to strong demand and weather risks in Canada.
• Buyers should monitor potential weather rallies in Canada and lock in forward coverage if weather models turn drier/hotter late June–July.
• Sellers in Ukraine and France may benefit from keeping some spot volumes unsold in anticipation of renewed demand from the Middle East/Asia.
• Processors and feed compounders: Take advantage of any further spot weakness to build positions for Q3/4 2025.
• Traders watch for signs of profit-taking exhaustion on ICE and Euronext as possible entry points for short-term longs.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast