The sunflower market is navigating a phase of increasingly bullish sentiment, with spot and forward prices on the rise across multiple origins. Demand remains robust from both the oil-crushing and confectionery industries, while supply tightness—particularly in Eastern Europe and Black Sea countries—underpins a firming price structure. Recent settlement data from SAFEX highlights sustained gains, especially for the July and December contracts, pointing to strong trading interest and limited producer selling.

Meanwhile, global sunflower seed and kernel prices in Europe and Asia continue their gradual ascent, buoyed by trade flows out of China, Ukraine, and Bulgaria. Weather uncertainty in key cultivation areas—combined with ongoing export and logistics bottlenecks—suggests a market sensitive to production shocks. Against this backdrop, fundamentals appear well-supported, and price volatility looks set to persist into the coming quarter as traders closely monitor crop reports and updated weather forecasts.

📈 Prices: Latest Sunflower Market Snapshot

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• World sunflower seed production in 2024/25 is projected to be stable, but Russian and Ukrainian output remains threatened by adverse weather and limited input availability.
• Crush margins are positive, supporting processor demand; however, tight raw material supply is keeping crush plants in Ukraine and Bulgaria running below full capacity.
• Uneven export flows from the Black Sea, with disruptions in Ukrainian logistics countered by a steady pace from Russia.
• EU demand for high-quality kernels remains above average, with bakers and snack producers competing for available volume.

📊 Fundamentals & External Influences

• USDA Reports: Most recent updates maintain global sunflower ending stocks near historic lows, underscoring the market’s sensitivity to supply shocks.
• Speculative Positioning: Funds have increased their net-long exposure, especially following weather-driven supply concerns in Black Sea countries.
• Currency Factor: The South African rand remains volatile, but current levels support local price competitiveness on SAFEX relative to exports from the Black Sea and EU origins.
• Trade Policy: Ongoing discussions in the EU about temporary import restrictions on sunflower oil from Ukraine, which may alter intra-EU flows.

☀️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• Ukraine & Southern Russia: Hot, dry weather persists; critical for the ongoing development of sunflowers heading toward flowering. Some rain is forecast in Central Ukraine next week, but overall, moisture deficits remain a concern and may cap yield potential.
• Bulgaria & Romania: Mixed conditions; recent rains have improved soil moisture in Bulgaria, but Romania remains drier than average. Below-average rainfall in July could limit output growth.
• China: Favourable weather supports stable crop prospects in main growing regions; no major yield risks currently flagged by local meteorological services.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Overview

Source: USDA, Industry Estimates - June 2025

💡 Key Insights & Trading Outlook

• Maintain cautious long positions as the weather risk premium remains embedded in prices, notably for Black Sea origins.
• Monitor SAFEX and EUR-based contracts for opportunities; arbitrage risk as world oilseed markets remain volatile.
• End users advised to lock in a portion of forward requirements to guard against potential new-crop shortages.
• Watch for policy-driven price moves as EU/Ukraine negotiations evolve on quotas and import policy.
• Near-term: Sideways to firm price trend likely, but any confirmation of yield-limiting weather can trigger further upside.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Market participants should stay alert for rapid shifts—weather and policy remain the key wildcards.