The global soya market is navigating a period of volatility as recent trading sessions across major futures exchanges show a complex interplay of downward pricing pressure and stable to improving demand fundamentals. CBOT soybean, soybean oil, and soybean meal futures have mainly retreated, with the oil contracts posting significant daily losses of up to -2.2%, while meal managed modest gains in the nearby months. Several external factors are contributing to this tug-of-war: South American production remains robust, but weather uncertainties in the U.S. Midwest and southern Brazil are causing some nervousness.

Recent updates in USDA acreage forecasts and third-party weather models will heavily influence expectations for the coming months. Meanwhile, physical soybean offers in key export regions such as China and the U.S. remain near multi-month stability, pointing to resilient international demand, especially from the feed and oil processing sectors. Market participants are watching speculative positioning, as funds have recently started to trim net shorts on futures, yet the prospect of a large North American crop could keep price rallies capped in the short term. With China continuing to secure forward purchases and crush margins gradually improving, the market could pivot quickly if adverse weather emerges. The next week will be critical as updated crop condition reports, global stock projections, and regional weather outlooks shape sentiment and trade action.

📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• USDA's most recent soybean acreage report reflects marginally increased sown area compared to last year, especially in the southern Midwest, supporting a large potential U.S. output should weather permit.
• China, the world’s largest soybean importer, has maintained steady forward bookings despite elevated domestic stocks, as hog and poultry feed demand remains resilient.
• South American harvest results, particularly from Brazil, continue to meet earlier optimistic forecasts, providing robust global availability, but logistical delays persist in some ports.
• Speculative funds at the CBOT exchange have begun trimming net shorts as export optimism lingers, but macroeconomic uncertainty and U.S. crop prospects moderate bullish enthusiasm.

📊 Fundamentals

• US Soybean Crush: Improved crush margins amid lower oil prices but supported meal values. USDA expects a slightly higher annual crush for 2025/26.
• Inventories: US and Brazil combined ending stocks remain comfortable, with global stocks-to-use ratios expected to edge higher over 2025.
• Chinese Demand: Stable with slight growth, buoyed by persistent demand from the livestock sector.
• Export Dynamics: Brazilian exports dominate, but U.S. new crop sales show improvement, particularly to Asian destinations.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• US Midwest: Near-term outlook calls for scattered storms and below-normal temperatures. Soil moisture improvement is beneficial after a drier start, but isolated areas may see excessive wetness.
• Brazil Southern Cone: Long-range forecasts suggest a brief cold spell but otherwise seasonal weather, supportive for late crop flows and planting preparations for the next season.
• Argentina: Recent rainfall has improved soil conditions for remaining harvest activities and early fieldwork.

Weather remains the largest near-term risk, particularly in the US Midwest through late July.

📉 Market Drivers & Speculative Positioning

• USDA acreage and quarterly stocks reports are expected to be pivotal in setting near-term price direction.
• Chinese forward demand and South American export pace continue to dominate global trade flows.
• Speculative funds have eased bearish bets but remain on the sidelines, watching the weather and macro trends.
• Macro risks: Currency fluctuations and global energy prices continue to influence production costs and trade margins.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term price direction: Downside risk still present if U.S. weather remains favourable, but swift rallies likely if crop stress increases.
• End users: Good opportunity to secure forward coverage at current levels, particularly for meal and bulk soybeans.
• Producers: Consider using options to protect against downside risk while retaining upside if weather conditions deteriorate.
• Traders: Monitor U.S. crop condition updates and South American export loading pace for signs of trend change.
• Physical buyers: Prices in China and the US remain attractive for spot and new-crop, suggesting ongoing buying interest.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast