Rice, as one of the world's essential staple foods, continues to exhibit remarkable price stability on international markets despite shifting supply balances and weather uncertainties. Current spot and forward market prices, as well as major FOB export offers from leading origins like Vietnam and India, reflect a stable to slightly firm tone. Major contract months on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) show marginal gains for the nearby terms, matched by flat to stable export quotes from both Vietnamese and Indian shippers. Global supply fundamentals remain balanced after robust harvests in Southeast Asia, yet volatile monsoon forecasts and regulatory actions in South and Southeast Asia inject an element of unpredictability into market sentiment.

USDA projections and insights from recent major rice market reports indicate firm international demand, especially from Africa and the Middle East, while stocks-to-use ratios remain comfortable. The market is closely watching weather impacts in key producer nations as the northern hemisphere enters critical crop development stages. With no major price shocks visible in the short term, market attention is firmly fixed on upcoming weather developments and any policy interventions by exporting countries.

📈 Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Asia's Major Exporters (India, Vietnam, Thailand): Large carry-over stocks and stable harvests underpin current stability.
• Africa & Middle East: High import demand continues; consumption remains robust due to food security initiatives.
• US and South America: Steady production outlooks, but area in the US slightly declined according to USDA's latest acreage report.
• Regulatory & Trade Policies: India's continued export restrictions and potential tightening in Vietnam are being closely monitored by the market.

📊 Fundamentals

• Global rice trade flows remain strong. USDA's June 2025 outlook confirms a modest increase in ending stocks, particularly in Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.
• Futures market open interest is elevated, signaling active commercial and speculative engagement.
• Export offers from Vietnam and India remain flat compared to last month, suggesting a well-supplied international market.
• Global stocks-to-use ratio hovers at multi-year averages, reducing immediate supply risks.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Thailand): Seasonal rains resumed after brief dry spells; forecasts indicate normal to slightly wetter-than-average July, benefitting late-planted crops.
• India: Monsoon onset has been timely, but regional flooding risks exist in key eastern states. Weather volatility could affect projected yields.
• US (Arkansas, Mississippi Delta): Warm, mostly dry conditions with some drought stress observed. Rainfall is forecast in early July, potentially improving crop prospects.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term rice prices expected to remain steady with minor upward corrections if weather risks materialize.
• Exporters: Secure forward sales on strength, particularly if monsoon disruptions escalate in India.
• Importers: Maintain flexible procurement—increased volatility is possible if weather or government intervention disrupts supply chains.
• Speculators: Monitor speculative positioning and open interest on CBoT for early signals of price action.
• Watch trade policy headlines from India, Vietnam, and Thailand for trigger risks.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)