Morocco Grain Market Outlook 2025/26
Late Rains Rescue Crop, But Import Reliance Persists
🧾 Summary
- Weather recovery: Timely rainfall in March–April 2025 helped reverse early drought damage, leading to a 40% year-on-year increase in wheat and barley output.
- Total grain production (wheat + barley) is forecast at 4.4 MMT, still below historical averages.
- The Moroccan government maintains zero wheat import duties and continues subsidies through December 31, 2025.
🌾 2025/26 Production Forecast (in million metric tons)
The
NDVI chart on page 2 shows improved vegetation activity starting in mid-March due to rainfall.
🚢 Wheat Import Trends (June–March YTD Comparison)
📦 Wheat Supply & Use (2025/26 Forecast)
🌾 Barley Outlook
- Expected production: 0.95 MMT (+44% %)
- Imports still needed: ~0.9 MMT
- Barley imports (Jul–Mar) down −37% YoY, mostly from the EU
- Critical for livestock feed, especially in drought years
🏛️ Policy Highlights
- Wheat import duties remain at 0% for the 2025 harvest window (May–July).
- Subsidies extended through December 2025 to support strategic food supply.
- A national strategic stock program is under development to cover 6 months of wheat consumption, coordinated with the FNCL (National Federation of Cereals & Legumes).
Source: USDA
