The global rice market is displaying signs of stabilisation after several months of heightened volatility, with prices on major exchanges, including CBOT, showing incremental gains. As the world’s most important food staple, rice prices serve as a crucial indicator for food security and agricultural health in Asia and beyond. The data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) highlights mild upward movements across key contracts, and FOB quotes in leading export hubs such as Vietnam and India remain steady. A robust start to the 2025 season, paired with largely favourable weather in Southeast Asia and India, has been offset by continued geopolitical uncertainties, sporadic trade restrictions, and shifting speculative interest.

Traders are closely watching production forecasts as the monsoon season begins and El Niño concerns fade. Meanwhile, buyers are keenly observing inventory levels in major importing nations and policy developments in top exporters like India and Thailand. This report provides an integrated, data-driven view of current price trends, the latest weather outlook, market-driven fundamentals, and actionable insights for stakeholders navigating the 2025 rice market.

📈 CBOT Rice Prices & Key Exchange Overview

🌏 Latest Physical Market Prices (FOB, Updated 21 June 2025)

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• 🌱 Production: Stable planting in Southeast Asia and India as of early monsoon, but close monitoring is required due to past weather disruptions.
• 📦 Inventories: World stocks are adequate, but China and key ASEAN importers have drawn down reserves over the last marketing year.
• 🔄 Trade Policy: India’s partial export ban continues to restrict global long grain supply, supporting higher prices for premium varieties.
• 💹 Speculative Interest: Investment funds are slowly increasing net long positions on CBOT rice contracts, underpinning the bullish sentiment.
• 📑 USDA Data: Latest WASDE report projects global production for 2024/25 to rise modestly, but notes upside risk if Southeast Asia’s rains falter.

📊 Fundamentals & Comparative Analysis

🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Producers

• ☀️ Southeast Asia: Monsoon rains have arrived on schedule, improving soil moisture in Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia. Risk of short-term local flooding, but overall positive for crop establishment.
• 🌧️ India: Above-average rainfall forecasted for July–August. Favourable for crop yields, yet may delay some fieldwork.
• ⛈️ US South: Slightly wetter conditions for the Arkansas/Louisiana rice belt. No significant threats reported this week.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 🟢 Buyers: Consider forward coverage for premium varieties (Basmati, Jasmine) as upside risk persists due to trade policy and weather.
• 🟡 Traders: Monitor speculative flows — net length is growing but not extreme. Watch for any CBOT technical breakouts above 14.00 US-Cent/cwt.
• 🔴 Sellers: Opportunities to lock in profits on nearby contracts, but avoid aggressive expansion given current supply chain uncertainties.
• 📅 Industry: Track the progression of monsoon rainfall and emerging policy signals in India for market direction cues over the next quarter.

📍 3-Day Regional Price Forecast