Wheat markets have entered a decisive phase, with futures prices on both sides of the Atlantic under notable downward pressure. The Euronext September wheat contract dropped sharply to EUR 200/t, losing EUR 4.25 in a single session. The CBOT September contract likewise fell 17.5 cents to 552 ct/bu, reflecting the global bearish sentiment. This downturn is primarily driven by rapid harvest progress in the Black Sea region and the US, where drier weather forecasts signal field activity will accelerate. Notably, the recent rains that hampered harvests in the southern US Plains are expected to subside, enabling a faster pace of cutting. The ceasefire between Israel and Iran has deflated risk premiums in the broader commodities complex, with wheat retreating towards multi-month lows seen in mid-June.

French harvest reports have further stabilized market outlooks, with initial winter barley yields exceeding expectations and supporting prospects for a robust wheat crop – though concerns linger over hot and dry June conditions affecting grain fill. US harvests, off to a slow start, are set to gather pace, but the latest USDA crop progress report reveals that 54% of US spring wheat is rated good-to-excellent, down 3 percentage points from last week, signaling some yield risk remains. On the demand side, Egypt's state grain buyer has secured large wheat volumes for summer delivery, mainly from Russia, Ukraine, and Romania, underlining the competitiveness of Black Sea origins. Meanwhile, EU soft wheat exports for the current season have slipped to 19.93 million tonnes, notably behind last season's 30.53 million.

📈 Prices

🔖 Spot & Export Market Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Harvest acceleration in Black Sea & US: Improved conditions (drier weather) will speed up harvests and likely increase available export supplies in the coming weeks.
• Egypt secures major imports: The country has bought 300,000–1,000,000t for delivery in July/August from Russia, Ukraine, and Romania, underlining stiff global export competition.
• EU Wheat exports lag behind last year: With 19.93 Mt shipped vs. 30.53 Mt at this point a year ago, although reporting gaps in French, Bulgarian, and Irish data may understate total volumes.
• US crop conditions deteriorate slightly: 54% rated good/excellent (down 3 points), increasing attention on US yield potential amid ongoing weather risks.

📊 Fundamentals

• Favourable yield reports from early French barley harvests support the expectation of a solid wheat crop, but late-June drought and heat may weigh on final averages.
• Global balance: supplies ample, but uneven regional risks from weather may curb some of the most bearish expectations if conditions deteriorate.
• Speculative positioning: Fund liquidations apparent amid falling prices, suggesting sentiment can swing fast on weather or geopolitical headlines.
• Macro backdrop: Risk premiums removed as Mideast tensions ease, lower oil prices also hit broader commodity complex.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• Black Sea region & Ukraine: Dry pattern persists, favoring swift harvest but raising longer-term concerns for late-maturity fields.
• France: Stable harvest weather with recent heat/drought could curb yields, especially in regions affected during grain fill.
• US southern Plains: Transitioning to clearer, drier days – critical for harvest momentum and grain quality. Watch for heat stress risk in spring wheat areas.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Bearish short term: Harvest pressure, improved weather and large Black Sea offers are likely to keep prices near recent lows.
• Monitor weather: Extreme heat or new rain delays in the US or Black Sea could trigger sharp rebounds.
• Buyers: Consider taking cover for forward months as global supplies flush near harvest; look for spot supply in Odesa/Kyiv (Ukraine) for most competitive pricing.
• Sellers: Avoid panic selling at lows, monitor for technical rebounds or firmer demand from North Africa/Middle East importers.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast