The European rape market endured sharp declines this week, echoing broader oilseed weakness across global exchanges. At the Euronext (MATIF), the front-month August contract fell by €14.25/t, closing at €487.75/t, triggering cautious sentiment among traders. The pressure extended to canola in Canada and soybeans on the CBOT, highlighting a coordinated downturn rooted in supply-side optimism and macroeconomic headwinds. French winter barley yields have surpassed expectations, boosting hopes for a strong rapeseed harvest, yet these expectations are tempered by recent heatwaves, which introduce lingering uncertainty regarding actual yield outcomes. The international price landscape is equally dynamic, with Ukrainian offers for FCA delivery in Odesa and Kyiv posting modest gains, while French FOB prices remain stable. As 2025's harvest nears, the interplay between weather, harvest results, and demand signals will shape the next market moves for rape and canola.

For market players navigating these fluctuations, vigilance is advised as harvest reports trickle in and the weather outlook remains variable. Volatility is likely to persist, making proactive risk management and close monitoring of fundamental data crucial for both producers and traders.

📈 Prices: Recent Developments at a Glance

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• France: Early harvest results for winter barley suggest higher yield potential for rapeseed, improving supply outlook.
• Ukraine: Moderate price gains suggest steady export interest, with 42% minimum oilseed quality supporting international demand.
• Canada: Canola prices dropped sharply amid expectations of improved yields and slower demand growth from crushers.
• Global: Weakness in soybeans and vegetable oil complex continued to dampen oilseed prices globally. Improved EU and Black Sea weather forecasts further supported supply recovery projections.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• USDA crop reports: Recent WASDE numbers signal comfortable global oilseed stocks, putting pressure on futures.
• Speculative Positioning: Funds have added to short positions, amplifying selling pressure on the MATIF and ICE exchanges.
• European Crop Conditions: While current harvests look favourable, recent heatwaves could still curb yields at critical ripening stages.
• Export Trends: Ongoing logistical constraints in the Black Sea region keep a floor under Ukrainian prices, despite a globally softer tone.

⛅ Weather Outlook & Yield Analysis

• France: Favourable conditions aided winter barley and early rapeseed maturity, but recent heat posed risks; next week's forecasts suggest moderate temperatures and rain, stabilising yield prospects.
• Germany & Poland: Periods of dryness and isolated heat stress could limit yield potential, but are offset by earlier season moisture.
• Ukraine: Near normal weather ahead, supporting harvest timing and logistics, with no major weather threats predicted for key regions.
• Canada (Prairies): Recent rains improved canola prospects, but a drier forecast for Western Canada brings some tail risk to yields.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect continued volatility as harvest yield reports emerge and weather impacts become clearer.
• Global oilseed complex likely to remain under pressure unless adverse weather strongly trims actual yields.
• Sellers in Ukraine and Europe should consider forward sales on price upticks, given uncertain demand and potential for increased harvest pressure.
• Oilseed processors may find attractive buying opportunities in the current weakness, but monitor for a rebound if weather threatens further damage.
• Risk management remains essential; watch for swings tied to USDA data, speculative positioning, and macroeconomic factors.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast