The global almond market finds itself at a critical crossroads as the 2024/25 season approaches its transition period. After last year’s substantial crop losses due to extreme heat, this season has displayed notably more favourable and moderate weather through California’s Central Valley—home to the world’s largest almond orchards. With harvest just weeks away in southern California, orchard health is said to be strong, raising hopes for a nearly full recovery to the previously expected 2.8 billion pound crop, barring last-minute weather shocks.

However, despite solid production prospects, demand uncertainties have cast a shadow, especially within domestic US markets, where shipments continue to slide, punctuated by one of the weakest sales months on record in May. Export markets remain the primary driver of resilience, even as trade frictions (notably China’s preference for Australian shipments due to tariffs) shape global flows. Industry carryout is notably reduced compared to last season, tightening overall supply, but uncommitted inventory now sits 17% higher versus last year—a signal of tepid forward engagement.

With new crop sales lagging, market prices are showing some softness, despite stable to firm levels for many grades. All eyes are on the upcoming USDA objective estimate, to be published July 10, which will set the tone for final harvest expectations and market sentiment into Q3. The transition from old to new crop may see a tighter squeeze than usual if shipment rates do not soften, especially as buyers remain wary and waiting for price signals to turn more favourable. Weather forecasts remain moderate to warm, reducing near-term heat-stress risks, but the industry remains vigilant for a repeat of last August's damaging heat. In short, supply is poised for a tight transition, while demand-side challenges persist, making price direction precarious as end-users and traders alike regroup for the new marketing year.

📈 Almond Market Prices & Sentiment

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Crop Size: 2024/25 California crop expected at 2.8 billion lbs (vs. 2.72 last year), assuming no late heatwaves. May position report shows receipts at 2.71 billion lbs, short of USDA forecast, but final tally will be close to 2.72–2.8 bln lbs.
• Inventory: Smaller carryout vs. last year = overall tighter supply. However, uncommitted inventory is up 17% year-on-year at 495 mln lbs.
• Shipments: YTD shipments at 2.262 bln lbs (-1.9% YoY); domestic shipments weak (May -22% YoY, down -6.3% YTD), exports stable (May +0.2% % % YoY).
• Forward Sales: Only 89 mln lbs sold in May (-34% YoY); new crop sales sharply lower (66 mln lbs vs. 173 mln last year, -62%).
• Commitments: Down 12.7% (402 mln lbs vs. 460 mln last year)—reflects domestic demand weakness and uncertain outlook.
• Export Hotspots: Strong rebound in Indian demand; China continues to prioritise Australian supply due to US tariffs.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Stable pricing in key US grades, but standards weakening on muted activity.
• The largest domestic market remains challenged since post-COVID, with a multi-year downward trend in US consumption.
• Higher uncommitted inventories could lead to increased pressure to clear stocks as the new crop approaches.

☀️ Weather & Harvest Outlook

• Recent Weather: Moderate, favourable conditions in California; healthy trees, no current heat-wave risks
• Harvest Timeline: First harvest in S California in 3–4 weeks (late July); main harvest early August.
• Risk Factors: Monitoring for any August heat spikes—a recurrence could threaten yields during harvest.
• Forecast: Next 7 days: near-average to slightly warm; little to no precipitation; low stress on orchards expected short-term.

🌐 Global Competitor Snapshot

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect further price softening in standards and nonpareils if the new crop sells sluggishly and inventories overhang persist.
• Short-term, export demand (esp. India) provides critical support; watch for any slowdown as a risk to price stability.
• Domestic buyers may defer purchases, anticipating further value, keeping near-term spot activity light.
• Monitor July 10 USDA objective estimate—if crop size comes below 2.8 bln lbs, rebound in prices possible.
• Producers: Consider structured sales to manage inventory; uncommitted stock is likely to become more burdensome as new crop arrives.
• Importers/end-users: Opportunities for value in late Q3 if suppliers seek to clear excess current crop.

📆 Regional Price Forecast (3-Day)