The global beans market is entering a phase of relative stability, shaped by contrasting dynamics in supply and demand. Chinese primary production regions are reporting that only about 9% of red bean (adzuki) inventories remain in the hands of farmers. While there’s a marginal uptick in farmers’ willingness to sell, stock levels are much lower than this time last year, and many traders have been cautious with fresh purchases, largely consuming their current inventories. Prices have found significant support from earlier inventory costs, limiting fluctuation despite an overall lacklustre demand from downstream end-users. Purchasing in many major Chinese sales regions remains conservative, as traders focus on digesting inventory rather than restocking aggressively. This cautious attitude is compounded by a persistent wait-and-see approach concerning end-user demand dynamics, eroding buyers’ willingness to engage in spot market activity.

Weather conditions in key Chinese bean-producing areas have been generally favourable, although some scattered bouts of excessive rainfall and humidity raise concerns about crop quality and yield in local pockets. Global production trends in Brazil, the UK, and elsewhere remain stable, but market participants are closely watching input cost movements and potential logistical disruptions as the northern hemisphere harvest approaches. Inventory drawdowns are limiting downside price risk in the near term, with global trade flows and the upcoming harvest outlook poised to set the tone for future price direction.

📈 Market Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand

• China: Farmers' inventories down to ~9%, lower than last year; inventory drawdown ongoing.
• Trader Inventories: 200-500 tonnes per holder, with fewer exceeding 500 tonnes; year-over-year stocks reduced.
• Demand: Weak at major destinations; traders mainly liquidating rather than replenishing stock.
• Global Production: Stable in Brazil and the UK; Chinese market steady, but weather and logistics could act as near-term catalysts.

📊 Fundamentals

• Inventory Cost Support: Prices remain underpinned by high inventory costs in China, constraining downside risk.
• Speculative Activity: Cautious, given subdued end-use market demand; most activity centred on managing existing positions.
• Recent Market Trend: Slight negative weekly price movement, but downward pressure muted due to tight farmgate stocks.

🌤 Weather Outlook

• Northeast & North China: Generally stable, though isolated heavy rain could affect bean quality during harvest. Overall temperature and sunlight hours are conducive to normal crop development.
• Brazil: Bean-growing heartlands continue to receive appropriate rainfall; soil moisture and temperatures are favourable for yield prospects.
• UK: No significant heat or drought, maintaining normal conditions for broad beans and kidney beans.

🌏 Production & Stock Snapshot

🔎 Key Market Drivers

• Strong inventory cost support keeps prices stable despite low demand.
• Lower YOY stocks in China are reducing short-term price volatility.
• Muted downstream buying and cautious sentiment among traders and end-users.
• Weather events in China could shift the yield outlook and affect late-season price action.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term prices are expected to remain stable, with tight downside owing to low Chinese stocks.
• End-user demand will dictate direction: monitor downstream buying and export activity.
• Current price levels present little incentive for aggressive buying or speculative activity.
• Monitor weather forecasts in NE/North China and input cost changes for fresh catalysts.
• Sellers: Consider incremental sales if spot liquidity improves; buyers: Time purchases to weather market dips caused by periodic demand lulls.

⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast