The global cashew market is experiencing a major shift in 2025, led by a robust increase in Vietnam's import volume and value, a redirection of raw cashew flows from Africa to Southeast Asia, and elevated price trends. Vietnam, the world's largest processor and exporter of cashews, imported over 1.32 million tons of cashews in the first five months of 2025, spending nearly 2.1 billion USD—reflecting a notable 9.1% increase in volume and a striking 39.9% surge in value compared to the previous year. This stark disparity underscores the intensifying price competition for raw materials amid tightening global supplies. Imports from Cambodia—Vietnam’s dominant supplier—accounted for over 63% of the cashew import bill, with average prices up 19% year-on-year. Supply-side challenges, currency fluctuations, and the rising cost of logistics have further inflated import costs and heightened concerns over profit margins in the Vietnamese processing sector.

Despite a healthy 19.4% year-on-year surge in export revenue, the Vietnamese cashew industry now faces a rare trade deficit as import bills outpace exports. The strategic focus moving forward will hinge on raising product quality, market diversification, and stronger trade promotion to meet the ambitious 4.5 billion USD export target outlined for 2025. Rising prices in upstream African origins such as Tanzania and Nigeria indicate intensifying global demand, especially as competition for premium raw nuts heats up between Asian and Western processors. The tightening raw cashew supply, especially from African origins, continues to support higher kernel prices. Meanwhile, the weather outlook across key producing regions remains favorable, but any disruption could have outsized effects on supply and pricing.

📈 Cashew Kernel Prices

Key Insights:

• Vietnamese WW240 and WW320 grades show price stability amid high import costs.
• Indian organic kernels maintain a premium over conventional lots.
• Market sentiment remains firm, supported by strong demand and persistent raw material tightness.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Vietnamese imports: 1.32 million tons (+9.1% YoY), value up 40%.
• Exports: 1.88 billion USD (+19.4% YoY), but record trade deficit due to high import values.
• Cambodia: Supplies 63% of Vietnam's imports (873,200 tons, 1.32 billion USD).
• Tanzania: 133,000 tons, up 93% YoY, with import price at 1,822 USD/ton (+45%).
• Nigeria: 69,000 tons, up 67% YoY; 1,533 USD/ton average.
• Speculative Buying: Anticipation of global shortages and output risks is keeping offer prices elevated.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Cost escalators: Logistics, raw nut scarcity, and currency risks remain the core bullish factors.
• Demand: Vietnam’s export and domestic sectors are both expanding as the industry diversifies outlets.
• Stock trends: Global inventories remain tight, especially for premium grades (WW240, WW320).

☀️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• Key producing regions in Southeast Asia and West Africa report mostly favorable weather, aiding yield prospects for the 2025 harvest.
• However, tropical storms in Vietnam's central highlands and sporadic droughts in West Africa could pose localized risks, warranting close monitoring.
• India's monsoon onset is timely; no major threats to crop progress yet observed.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Buyers: Lock-in contracts for Q3 delivery while kernel prices remain stable; monitor for short-term volatility due to weather.
• Sellers: Hold premium kernel stocks (WW240, WW320), as further price advances are possible on tight raw supply.
• Importers: Secure diversified raw material sources, especially given Cambodia’s outsized share and associated supply risks.
• Industry: Prepare for persistent trade deficit pressures; prioritize value addition and product differentiation.
• Watchlist: Global logistics, ongoing weather in Vietnam/Cambodia/West Africa, and evolving consumer demand in EU, US, and China.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• Kernel prices projected to remain at firm levels; risk to the upside if supply concerns intensify or adverse weather develops.
• Short-term bullish factors: Tight global supply, strong demand, and stable logistics.