The global chickpeas market faces heightened volatility and supply-side pressure as we head into Q3 2025. Despite strong Rabi season outputs in India, the world’s leading producer, market fundamentals remain tight due to policy-driven procurement shortfalls and resilient open-market prices. With the Indian government's procurement window likely to be extended until July 15, 2025, traders are eyeing government buffer stock targets that have been repeatedly revised downward—from an ambitious 2.8 million tonnes to possibly only 400,000–500,000 tonnes.

As of late June, only about 310,000 tonnes have been procured, underscoring ongoing challenges as high spot prices incentivize farmers to bypass the Minimum Support Price (MSP) in favor of more lucrative offers from the private sector. Meanwhile, global export FOB prices remain firm, with Indian and Mexican origins both holding elevated levels amid sustained global demand. Short-term weather uncertainties and the onset of the South Asian monsoon add further risk and could tip more farm stock into the market in coming weeks, depending on storage feasibility. As the world weighs strong demand against limited official supply and weather threats, price volatility looks set to continue for July.

📈 Chickpeas Market Prices

🌍 Supply & Demand Overview

• India's procurement: Final procurement may reach 350,000 tonnes—well below original targets. Gujarat (150k), Madhya Pradesh (99k), and Rajasthan (50k) are key suppliers; Maharashtra lags (3k).
• Farmers favor the open market: Spot prices exceed the MSP (approx. USD 68.07/quintal), so government is unable to meet revised buffer stock targets.
• International demand: Middle Eastern and South Asian buyers maintain robust import demand, keeping export prices elevated despite Indian oversupply potential.

📊 Fundamental Drivers

• Government procurement policy shifts: Extension of chickpeas MSP window may help build stocks if monsoon pressures intensify farm sales.
• Speculative activity: Tight supply near term, strong demand, and unpredictable farmer selling prompt upward pressure on market sentiment despite mild week-on-week declines.
• Comparison to last market report: Previous cycles also saw procurement struggles and bullish pressure—recent developments keep the theme of spot-market driven trade and support for prices.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Impact

• Monsoon developments: The June–July monsoon in India is forecasted to be average to above-average, but regional flooding could prompt farmers to liquidate more stock to avoid losses.
• Storage concerns: High humidity and rain challenge safe on-farm storage, increasing near-term selling pressure if the procurement window remains open.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• For exporters: Maintain offer discipline in spot negotiations; price dips are likely to be shallow and followed by rebounds if monsoon disruptions prompt farmer selling.
• For importers: Secure coverage for Q3–Q4 needs, especially from Indian and Mexican origins; supply-side risk is high and procurement delays could tighten export availabilities.
• For producers: Monitor government announcements closely—official MSP extensions and regional weather volatility can drive abrupt selling opportunities.
• Monitor currency: Watch for fluctuations in INR and MXN, as currency moves could affect local offer prices for bulk international shipments.