Sugar Futures Surge โ August Contract Nears USD 480 on Technical Buying
On 25 June 2025, ICE Sugar No.5 futures surged sharply. The
August 2025 contract jumped 2.30% to USD 479.00/t (EUR 445.47/t), driven by technical momentum and speculative fund activity. Most other contracts across the curve followed suit. However,
EU spot prices remain unchanged, and physical buying interest is still thin.
๐ ICE Sugar No.5 โ Closing Summary (25.06.2025)
(Exchange rate: 1 USD = 0.93 EUR)
๐ช๐บ EU Spot Market โ Little Movement Despite Futures Rally
๐ฆ FCA spot prices in the EU remain stuck at
EUR 0.50โ0.52/kg, with few forward deals reported.๐ Buyers are sceptical of the futures rally, pointing to oversupply and weak refining margins.๐ง Refiners continue offering discounted old-crop material to clear stocks before Q3.
๐๏ธ Retail Sugar Prices (1 kg, verified 25.06.2025)
๐ Market Comparison Table
๐ Market Insights
- ๐ Technical rally triggered by momentum and fund activity
- ๐พ No supply disruption โ Brazil and India remain on track
- ๐ EU market sentiment remains bearish โ fundamentals not supportive
- ๐งฎ Traders watching for resistance near USD 480โ485/t
๐ฎ 3-Day Outlook (26โ28 June 2025)
๐
Outlook:Momentum may continue in the short term, but a pullback is likely unless physical demand or news flow supports the rally.
๐งญ Conclusion & Strategy
โ
Strong technical session with volume confirmation๐ฆ Physical market remains sceptical โ no real buying interest in Europeโ ๏ธ Potential for overbought conditions unless real demand emerges
๐ Recommendations:
- ๐ Buyers: No need to chase โ EU spot still soft; use futures rally as leverage
- ๐ฆ Sellers: Use strength to lock Q3/Q4 positions โ ideal for contract negotiation
- ๐ Traders: Watch USD 480โ485/t โ key technical zone for breakout or reversal
๐
Summary:Futures rallied strongly, but the move lacks physical backing. The rally is
speculative for now, and the market remains fundamentally oversupplied.
