The international wheat market is undergoing significant turbulence, driven by synchronised sell-offs at major exchanges, a shifting macro environment, and evolving production forecasts. This week, wheat futures dropped sharply for the fourth consecutive session on Euronext, erasing prior geopolitical risk premiums and marking new contract lows. Persistent downward momentum also hit US wheat futures at the CBOT, where Soft Red Winter wheat futures dipped but held up relatively better than their hard wheat counterparts. Market sentiment is jittery amid a combination of robust global supply signals, ranging from lifted Russian production forecasts to improved harvest expectations in the EU and the US.

SovEcon has raised its projection for Russia’s 2025 wheat harvest, while the EU’s MARS-Report cited excellent prospects, particularly in Southern Europe. Meanwhile, drier weather in the US southern Plains is hastening harvests, inflating short-term supplies and pressuring prices further, especially at the Kansas exchange. On the fund side, speculators are recalibrating their strategies, reducing but likely now rebuilding their net short positions in Paris. Wheat traders globally are also keenly watching for fresh USDA statistics on US grain inventories and acreage. With weather volatility and looming USDA export sales data adding further unpredictability, the near-term tone remains bearish, but the balance of speculative positioning and weather risks could foster sharp reversals.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Russia: SovEcon lifts 2025 wheat harvest forecast to 83.0 Mio t due to improved conditions, boosting global supply outlook.
• EU: MARS report upgrades European yield estimate, with especially strong prospects in Southern Europe.
• US: Drier southern Plains quicken harvest; traders anticipate increased short-term supplies. USDA reports on stocks and acreage due shortly.
• Export Demand: Analysts expect USDA to report US weekly wheat sales of 300,000–600,000 t—watched as a gauge for international buying interest.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money net-short on Euronext has fallen from 253,210 to 201,173 contracts before likely rebuilding this week, hinting at persistent bearishness.

📊 Fundamentals Snapshot

• Global Production: Russian, EU, and US crops are expected to rise, moderating previous supply concerns.
• Inventories: Current global carryover is robust but closely linked to harvest progress and trade flows.
• Ukrainian Offers: FCA Kyiv/Odesa (Protein min. 11.5%): 0.24-0.25 EUR/kg; min. 9.5% protein: 0.22-0.23 EUR/kg—stable to slightly weaker.FOB Odesa (various protein grades): 0.19-0.20 EUR/kg.
• French (FOB Paris): 0.26 EUR/kg (min. 11.0%), down week-on-week.
• US (FOB Washington D.C.): 0.22 EUR/kg stable (CBOT spec, 11.5% protein).

🌦️ Weather & Harvest Outlook

• US Southern Plains: Dry weather speeds up winter wheat harvesting—pressure on near-term spot prices.
• Northern US Plains: More rain is expected, which could delay maturation and limit quality for spring wheat.
• Europe: Much-improved weather in southern regions boosts yield expectations, as reflected in MARS upward revisions.
• Russia: Central regions' improved conditions underpin SovEcon’s positive adjustment to the 2025 harvest.

🌏 Global Balance Overview

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Maintain a cautious, defensive stance: Price breakdown on key exchanges confirms sustained pressure from rising crops and weak demand momentum.
• Short-term: Watch for reversals as speculators rebuild short positions—position covering risks spikes on USDA release.
• Physical market: Good supplier activity, especially from Ukraine, considered for forward demand planning (use FCA/FOB offers opportunistically).
• Monitor upcoming USDA export data, harvest results in Russia, the EU, and the US, and speculative activity on Euronext for trend shifts.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast