The global barley market stands at a crossroads mid-year, characterised by stagnant pricing in major futures contracts and incremental declines in spot feed barley values from top Ukrainian origins. As producers and traders position themselves for the new crop season, subdued volumes and stable quotes suggest a market in wait-and-see mode, balancing between healthy existing stocks and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming Northern Hemisphere harvests. Australian SFE feed barley contracts are flat across all terms through 2028, with no trading activity recorded—a clear indicator of both ample supply and hesitant demand in the region. Meanwhile, Ukrainian export prices in both FCA and FOB terms have ticked lower, despite the logistical challenges and persistent geopolitical complexities emanating from the Black Sea.

Market insiders continue to monitor acreage data, yield prospects, and weather developments, which could shift price trajectories as harvests progress. Recent USDA updates and European crop tour reports signal the potential for slightly above-average output, especially in Ukraine and France, though quality concerns and dryness in parts of southern Europe and Australia add a layer of risk to the outlook. With speculative funds maintaining light positioning and the feed grain complex influenced by both maize and wheat trends, the coming weeks will be shaped by yield results, logistics, and global feed demand. Strategic positioning is advised, with an eye on near-term weather and harvest developments.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• USDA Outlook: Global barley output for 2025/26 is projected marginally higher, driven by increased acreage in Ukraine and stable plantings in the EU and Australia.
• Black Sea Supply: Ukrainian exports remain active, but values are pressured by ample domestic supply and competition from Russia and Romania.
• European Demand: Steady feed barley demand in Europe, though some shift back to maize due to lower corn prices.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money net positions in barley remain light, muted volatility in futures and physical markets.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Inventory Levels: Higher carryover stocks globally after bumper 2024 harvests, especially in Australia and the EU.
• Cash Market Trends: Slightly lower Ukrainian FOB and FCA prices suggest ample availability; buyers are hesitating amid expectations for further harvest pressure.
• Logistics: Smooth movement from Black Sea ports, but heightened insurance costs and war risk discount.
• Historical Comparison: Compared to last year, prices are 7–10% lower in the Black Sea region, reflecting a bearish tone from oversupply.

☀️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• Ukraine: Recent showers boosted soil moisture, reducing drought stress for maturing barley. No major cold or heat risks expected near-term.
• Australia: Southern growing regions are seen as dry, heightening yield risk if rains do not materialise in the next 2–3 weeks.
• EU (France, Spain): Variable weather: France favourable, Spain remains dry. Harvest quality is projected to be normal to slightly below average.
• North Africa: Mixed outlook, with Morocco facing drought-driven import needs.

📦 Global Production & Stocks

🔎 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Consider locking in feed barley purchases for autumn and winter needs, as Ukrainian prices are attractive and seasonal risk may bring volatility post-harvest.
• Monitor Australian weather; dry risks could reprice deferred contracts upwards.
• Watch French, Spanish, and North African weather for new import demand signals.
• Speculators: Limited near-term upside, but dry weather may offer quick spikes; maintain light positioning until clarity on southern hemisphere growing conditions.
• Exporters: Take advantage of the Black Sea shipment window as flows remain smooth and premiums are limited.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast