The global sesame market is experiencing pivotal changes amid shifting trade flows, flat demand in China, growing import appetite in the United States, and volatile weather in key producing regions. China's recent removal of import tariffs on sesame from African nations (excluding Eswatini) has powered African exporters into a competitive position. While this political shift has opened lucrative opportunities, China's internal market remains stagnant, with inventories tightening only marginally, and firmer domestic prices facing the risk of global price softening.

Meanwhile, U.S. imports have jumped 13% year-on-year through April, but average import prices have fallen over 12% as India cements its role as the cost-effective origin of choice. Weather-related supply shocks loom in Pakistan as the ongoing heat and rainfall threaten a 30–50% output drop, while India’s kharif cultivation and arrivals are ahead of schedule, lending some stability. In Brazil, impressive yields contrast with slow sales, potentially delaying supply pressure on prices. South Korea’s imports have soared alongside lower prices, with a major new tender reinforcing the country's demand. Collectively, these elements highlight the current fragility of price stability, with weather volatility and policy changes likely to keep market participants nimble in the weeks ahead.

📈 Sesame Prices at Key Locations

🌍 Supply & Demand Snapshot

• China: Port inventories at 290,000 MT (slight month-on-month decline). Tariff-free sesame from Africa is pressuring non-African origins.
• USA: Imports Jan–Apr 2025 up 13% YoY; prices down 12% YoY. Indian sesame surged 30% in volume at lower pricing.
• South Korea: Imports up 23% with lower average price (USD 2,097/MT). New government tender for 14,000 MT (delivery August/October).
• India: Kharif cultivation 42% ahead of 2024; steady arrivals (Gujarat 50,000–55,000 bags/day).
• Pakistan: Harvest projected 30–50% below normal due to persistent hot/rainy weather.
• Brazil: Planted area 580,000 ha; output 377,000 MT. Top quality, slow sales.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Speculative Positioning: Neutral–Bearish as global supply is expected to rise but major origin risks (Pakistan).
• Inventories: Moderate drawdowns in China; Indian and African stocks healthy.
• Currency Movements: Weaker rupee supports India’s export pricing competitiveness.
• Trade Policy: China-Africa tariff cut stimulates African exports at potential cost to Indian suppliers.
• Seasonal Arrivals: Peak arrivals in India and new Brazilian crop moderation create downward bias on prices short-term.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• India: Monsoon onset favourable, boosting planting and crop health.
• Pakistan: Excessive heat and heavy rainfall reduce yield prospects—expected output drop of up to 50% in Punjab/Sindh.
• Brazil: Stable weather, high-quality crop. Potential logistics delays from heavy rains in some regions.
• Africa: Sudan, Nigeria, and Chad—improving rainfall supports yields, but localized flooding could impact some zones.

🌏 Production & Stock Comparison (2025 Estimates)

⚡ Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-Term: Watch for softening trend as Indian and Brazilian arrivals peak.
• Risk Rally: Weather-induced damages in Pakistan could spark corrective rallies, particularly for quality grades.
• Preference: Buyers may favor African offers for China-bound contracts due to new tariff structure.
• Bid Timing: Consider staggered purchases as prices may see further mild downside; aggressive buying only if signs of Pakistani shortage intensify.
• Basis Risk: Monitor premium for higher grades (EU-Grade, organic) as overall quality in Brazil/India is strong but patchy.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast